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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35011)4/27/2000 5:52:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Justa/all, "Hitachi Plans $1.9 Billion In Capital Spending For Semiconductor Operations"
dowjones.wsj.com

40% yoy increase.

G.



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35011)4/27/2000 6:41:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
JW, Gottfried, and onlookers-- Looks like Mr. Morgan didn't have anything constructive to say, and the next downturn is outside his crystal ball's purview (> 6 mo away). He didn't want to be impolite (Jim's a gentleman, so he's never accidentally impolite) and say "No comment," so he uses a standard placeholder: "It's steak as far as the eye can see!"

He may be right, but I'm skeptical. Not negative, but skeptical.

You probably got it right, though: AMAT to new heights. With their quarter closing this week, they'll soon have some "beat the street" numbers for us all. Oh, they'll beat the street, how can they not? About time for some research:

1. What's the First Call number for AMAT's Q2?
2. What's the whisper on the street? (I don't like this concept, but it's very well entrenched.)
3. When will AMAT report Q2? Somehow May 12 sticks in my mind, but that's a Friday, not your usual reporting day.
4. Finally, what number would you propose for their Q2? I'm going with $0.13 above analysts' expectations. Anybody else got a number to share?

Mitch



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35011)4/27/2000 9:33:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D  Respond to of 70976
 
From Captain Morgan. Jeff

=DJ Applied Materials CEO Sees More Growth Ahead >AMAT

04/27/2000
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright ¸ 2000 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


By Rick Jurgens

PALO ALTO (Dow Jones)--James Morgan, chief executive of Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), thinks a recent surge in new orders for semiconductor-manufacturing equipment doesn't mark a peak in demand for the highly cyclical industry.
"Forecasts show pretty good growth for the next couple of years," he said.

Applied Materials, Santa Clara, Calif., is the world's largest maker of equipment used to make semiconductors, the silicon chips which are the brains and nerve systems of computers, cell phones and other electronic appliances. Applied had sales of $4.9 billion in the fiscal year that ended Oct. 31. Morgan said the company's annual sales should grow to $15 billion or even $20 billion within a few years.

For its current quarter, which runs through April, analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial see Applied posting net income of 55 cents a share. Morgan noted that in a Feb. 15 conference call the company guided analysts toward estimates of $2 billion to $2.1 billion in second-quarter revenue and earnings per share ranging from 50 to 54 cents, adjusted for a subsequent stock split. Morgan declined to offer an update. "We don't comment on (analysts' estimates) unless there are significant changes in the outlook," he said.

Applied Materials' stock closed Wednesday at 90 7/16, down from its 52-week high of 115 on April 7 but up from its 52-week low of 24 7/32 on April 29, 1999.

Historically, demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment has tracked the speedups and slowdowns of the highly cyclical semiconductor industry. Last year, that industry boomed as worldwide chip sales grew 18.9% to $149 billion.

That windfall has sparked a surge in investment in chip-making equipment. North American manufacturers reported a March book-to-bill ratio of 1.45, with worldwide orders valued at $2.45 billion and shipments at $1.69 billion, according to preliminary three-month moving averages compiled by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.

Morgan said chip makers are spending to catch up after a three-year slump in semiconductor revenue caused cutbacks in new equipment expenditures. "All of the equipment is obsolete out there," he said.

Currently, chip makers are racing to build production lines that can turn out chips with circuit line widths of 0.18 micron, Morgan said. The current standard width is 0.25 micron. Reducing line widths allows the production of chips which perform "more functions at a lower cost per function," he said.

Morgan said that two additional waves of spending on technological improvements are on the way. In 2001, chip makers will make significant investments in capacity to produce chips with copper circuits, he said. Chips are currently made with aluminum circuits, which give off more heat as they conduct electricity.

In 2002, spending will kick in to develop lines that can make chips out of 300 millimeter silicon wafers, he said. Those wafers will yield more than twice as many chips as 200 mm wafers, which are the largest that can be processed with most existing equipment.

Looking beyond those two waves, Applied is assessing what promises to be the next wave of technology: production lines capable of turning out chips with circuit line widths of 0.10 micron or less. That's a focus of the annual planning project that Applied began earlier this month, Morgan said. That effort, which will run through June, will map out product and factory development needed to meet demand three years from now, he said.

Chip makers historically have been dependent on demand from personal computer makers. Morgan expects some relief from the industry's boom-bust cycle as demand for chips for telecommunications, games and other consumer products continues to grow, reducing the chip makers dependence on demand from personal-computer makers.

Last year, makers of personal computers and servers accounted for 47% of total worldwide spending on chips, down from 51% in 1998, according to Doug Andrey, information systems director for the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Another factor that could smooth out the cycle is the reduced role of governments and conglomerates in funding investment in new chip capacity, Morgan said. That should make investors more reluctant to ramp up investments without regard to the potential impact on industry capacity, he said. "More companies ... are being forced to stand on their own in the competition for capital," he said.


-Rick Jurgens; Dow Jones Newswires; 650-496-1367;
richard.jurgens@dowjones.com

(END) DOW JONES NEWS 04-27-00

09:56 AM



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35011)5/7/2000 9:06:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Respond to of 70976
 
Novellus May Use Share-Sale Cash for Acquisitions, Analysts Say


San Jose, California, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Novellus Systems Inc., whose tools build layers of circuits on computer chips, may use $488 million from a recent share sale for acquisitions to step up its challenge to Applied Materials Inc., analysts said.

Applied Materials, the No. 1 semiconductor-equipment maker, has stolen business from Novellus and other rivals as it adds products and enters new markets such as chip-patterning and polishing through purchases. Now, Novellus may start fighting back.

``They've recognized that Applied has so much momentum,'' said Mark FitzGerald, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst. Applied ``is not creating the technology in-house; they're doing the Cisco (Systems Inc.) strategy and buying from outside.''

FitzGerald said Novellus -- Applied's nearest competitor in key markets for tools that deposit the metals and insulators that build circuits -- holds a unique position in the industry. With relatively low operating costs and high levels of outsourcing, it's got more cash on hand to finance its expansion than many other companies.

Novellus spokesman Bob Climo declined to comment on acquisition plans, and the company has said only that it will spend cash from last month's sale of about 8.4 million shares at 59 5/8 each for general corporate purposes.

New Markets

Analysts say the company will have a tough time gaining ground with internal development alone. It could look outside to bolster its line of products for depositing metals and insulators or enter new areas like stripping and polishing away excess materials.

``If you want to be a leader, you've got to diversify into other market areas,'' said Mike O'Brien, an analyst at Wit SoundView. ``It's a good strategy.''

SpeedFam-IPEC Inc., which makes polishers, could be a possible acquisition candidate, said O'Brien. FitzGerald named stripping-tool supplier GaSonics International Corp. as another possibility. Lam Research Corp. also has long been considered a target, they said.

GaSonics President Asuri Raghavan said the company isn't in talks with anyone. SpeedFam-IPEC President Richard Faubert declined to comment, as did Lam spokeswoman Kathleen Bela.

Shares of San Jose, California-based Novellus, which have gained 58 percent this year, rose 7/16 to 64 7/16 on Friday. Applied shares rose 4 1/8 to 101 7/8 Friday and have climbed 61 percent in 2000.

Different Strategies

Turning to acquisitions for growth would be a departure for Novellus, which has made few purchases in recent years. Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Hill has long contended that bigger isn't always better and that improvement of company technologies brings in business.

The company's last significant acquisition -- the 1997 purchase of a Varian Associates Inc. unit -- gave Novellus physical vapor deposition machines, tools that place metallic layers on semiconductors, and almost doubled its share of that market.

Applied Materials takes a different approach, targeting areas it doesn't dominate and aggressively building up in those markets, often using acquisitions to gain business. The Santa Clara, California-based company uses its broad product line to win contracts over rivals because it can offer tools for almost the entire chip-manufacturing process, from depositing the first layer on the wafer to etching away excess material to polishing layers flat.

The company broke into the chip-inspection business with the purchase in 1996 of two Israeli companies, Opal Inc. and Orbot Instruments Ltd. In 1998, Applied bought software maker Consilium Inc. and in October acquired Obsidian Inc. to gain a new chip- polishing system.

Most recently, Applied Materials spent $2.8 billion to buy Etec Systems Inc., the biggest maker of tools used to draw the circuit patterns that get transferred onto chips.

Momentum

Though there's still solid growth coming from Novellus's internal development, Applied Material's momentum has made it such a tough competitor that acquisitions could be the fastest way to fight back, FitzGerald said.

``Applied is broadening its product portfolio faster than just about anyone right now,'' he said. ``In this business, there's definitely an advantage to having size.''

Indeed, the gap is sizable. Applied posted sales of $4.86 billion in fiscal 1999 -- eight times the $592.7 million that Novellus had last year.

Most chip-equipment companies are even smaller, and like Novellus, they focus on a narrow product line or two, winning business by aiming to be best in their specific areas.

Recent acquisitions in the industry have furthered that strategy. KLA-Tencor Corp., which competes with Applied Materials in some diagnostic-tool markets, has made purchases to build up its existing software division, rather than branching into new markets.

Adding more gear to deposit metals or insulators could boost Novellus's market share, O'Brien of Wit SoundView said. Novellus could go after small companies that don't have the resources to tap their potential.

More likely, though, are purchases in new, high-growth areas the company doesn't already compete in, analysts said.

Merrill's FitzGerald expects Novellus to consider technologies that strip away photoresist, the light-sensitive material used to transfer circuit designs to wafers. GaSonics builds those tools and is a current Novellus partner, making it a possible target, he said.

O'Brien said the company will evaluate chip-polishing tools, a faster-growth, higher-margin segment than its traditional deposition business. SpeedFam-IPEC, created in a merger between what had been the top two companies in that space, has fallen behind and could be a target, he said.

May/07/2000 10:57 GMT