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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (10447)	4/27/2000 10:41:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78507

Did we have a correction? Recently I had a privilege of another stock discussion with my coworkers. They are intelligent guys, Ph.D.'s, not some shoe-shine boys, but after one of these conversations I will jump out of the 17th floor. Our company reported good results and its ridiculously overpriced stock was going up. "Oh, it's going up one point every hour!" "It's going to continue like that for the rest of the year" "I should buy more on margin" Needless to say, my halfhearted attempts to question these pearls of wisdom were met with completely blank looks. And that's after correction that shaved off up to 80% of similar stocks. As Hoja Nasrudin said: "Ignorance is bliss..." Jurgis

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (10447)	4/28/2000 1:31:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78507

DFS's annual report basically told you what was going to happen on their next quarterly announcement. I was looking at it as a buy and stopped cold when I read the annual (Liquidity section - re: receivables). Why I shorted the Nasdaq and not this just makes me want to beat my head against the nearest wall. A fun read: streetadvisor.com (still haven't figured out how to make those turn blue, so sorry, you've got to cut and paste). Just proving that if you assume that margins rise indefinitely, and you conveniently ignore all the companies losing money, and you assign a terminal EBITDA multiple of 31x, you can make the Nasdaq worth whatever you want it to be worth. This guy's assumptions just made me laugh, considering that I am buying stocks now assuming no growth, margin contraction, and EBITDA exit multiples of 6x. How cavalierly this "analyst" makes these assumptions, with no apparent need for objective justification, tells me tech is still in its own world, and I don't want to go into that world until this guy gets his margin call.