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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (108163)	4/27/2000 10:56:00 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575999

<< Assume Q1 as base for Q2, Q3 and Q4...Q1 Athys of 1.2 million times 4 = 4.8 million...Mr. Sanders is projecting 12.8 million Athys in Y2000, that is 8 million (12.8 - 4.8) above the Q1 base rate...Assuming Athy ASP of $200 and 75% drop to bottom line, that adds additional before tax profits of $1.2 billion ($200 x .75 x 8 million) or $8.00/share...So in total before tax profit for Y2000 could approach $12.60 ((i.e 4 x 1.15 (base quarterly rate)= $4.60 plus $8.00 (incremental Athy revenues)) and that's assuming no increased contribution from flash growth! >> I don't think $200 is a reasonable ASP. You have to remember that by Q4 most of those Spry Athy's are going to be Durons and not Tbirds. Athy ASP will be the same as the overall ASP by Q4 (or darn close) and will be much closer to 100. Still, I have a price target of $300, and I don't think we'll need anywhere near $12 bucks a share to get there.

To: niceguy767 who wrote (108163)	4/27/2000 11:45:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575999

Re: Dan3 where are you? Hi Niceguy, Still here. As an investment, AMD looks like a rocket with a lit fuse at this point. Not much to do other than stand back and watch it take off. I'm just enjoying the ride and watching to see how close my January 3 guess turns out to be. So far, so good, but now I think we'll see 10M parts in Q4 instead of 8. The incremental income will offset the taxes that AMD will be paying by then, so I'll stick with the $9.30 / share earnings estimate. Message 12446666 I continue to enjoy your posts, dour and pessimistic though they may be :-) (how in the world could anyone accuse you of cheerleading?) Regards and take care, Dan