To: Chris who wrote (22957 ) 4/28/2000 9:58:00 PM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42787
Triangles are very interesting. For instance, in the SPOOs, when price breaks out from a triangular formation, many times after reaching a nearby price target, price can reverse and move a distance in the other direction. And in many cases price will move further than it did on its original breakout. That is why I play the anticipated price reversal *after* price breaks out. Another reason is that it is sometimes very difficult to determine the direction of the initial breakout. Also flag patterns defined on a horizontal line with no "up" or "down" orientation also behave in the same way. I suspect this may be true of other types of patterns. Price when it reverses may turn into a large whipsaw or actually as indicated above continue in the opposite direction for a nice trade that eventually faded the initial breakout. Now if price touches an important S or R after its breakout and then looks to be reversing again, particularly if this is its original breakout point, then this can be a very good play in the original direction. So one has to be careful, observe price action carefully, and be aware of the kind of market they are currently trading in. But the initial price reversal is still usually good for a few points. That is the more reliable part of the price movement. What I find worthwhile to pay attention to while trading is being aware of conditions that can cause whipsawing and play accordingly. These include the triangular and horizontal patterns with respect to the SPOOs. Another is in a slow market where price whipsaws just after its trigger from the pattern. Another is when a pattern is broken out of prematurely. This is where there is not an important test of S or R (positive price action) or price contraction to initiate the price movement out of the pattern. Part of the reason of this whipsawing effect may be the floor and the games they play with respect to trend lines and triangles. They have a field day with traders who play these setups. The floor loves screwing around with the inexperienced public trader. The more apparent the trend line that can be drawn ahead of time, the more likely as price moves up to it price will then initiate a move with a false breakout from the trend line. For that matter, it seems that the more the public is involved trading, the more frequent the occurrence of triangular patterns with the SPOOs along with their associated false breakouts. For this reason, I call triangular patterns the footprints of the public trader. The false breakouts from these footprints can operate so much like clockwork in certain situations that I also try to fade the initial breakout from a trend line which may in itself end up in an anticipated price reversal when price breaks out from the other side of the triangle in the opposite direction. Just some observations with respect to the SPOOs that I am sure is true with other trading instruments in their respective markets. :-) Bob Graham