Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akmike who wrote (20607)	4/28/2000 3:49:00 AM
From: coachbobknight	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

mike...i agree...in fact for those of us who have been with mrvc since '97, we have been hearing "next year will be the year that revenues ramp dramatically" for a long time now... i think it is interesting in light of your comments about 'modest sequential revenue growth', that noam and the others were so quick to state that they were operating at full capacity currently... prospects for accelerouter and wireless fiberdriver and sms are no more clear after the call... there were no questions along these lines so mgmt let it go short...i am no longer working in fund mgmt professionally so i chose not to participate in the call...but now i wish i had elected to take part in order to flush some of this out...i was disappointed as usual that there were not more analysts on the call...the next time this stock sustains a rise, mgmt needs to do a tiny secondary to get a little action from the sell side...we can also assume that the ipo of luminent will bring coverage for mrvc... cheers to he who asked on the cc today whether such coverage would be the expected result of a luminent ipo...raz to naom for not answering the question directly... we might move higher tomorrow but the call could have been better... steve

To: akmike who wrote (20607)	4/28/2000 8:27:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 42804

<<One thing about the call troubled me and maybe I just missed something: Edmund stated more than once that revenue growth for the remainder of 2000 would be of a modest sequential nature. It was also stated that we have achieved just in Chatsworth and FOCI capacity increases from 35,000 sq. ft. to 305,000 sq. ft. Then in one of the new acquisitions they were ramping production from 35000 units currently to 200,000 by year-end. How does one reconcile this production increase with "modest sequential growth"?>> I think this should be obvious when you think about it. Switching was around 78% of the revenue in 1999. This is going down very low - not to zero because they are keeping Optiswitch, Fiber Driver (and who knows exactly what else), but low. That is a LOT of revenue to replace. In Q1 they took a charge for inventory, but people missed (I think) the impact of this declining revenue. This is one reason I sold in the triple digits because I was leery of what this revenue decline would do to Q1. I don't know why people were surprised, I saw this clearly in February. Well we took a big chunk of that decline, replaced some of it with optical component growth and still had positive earnings. That is very positive. The frustration is we don't know how much switching declined, how much more there is to go, and how much growth there was in Optical this quarter. Actually, I think it is highly positive that they will have even modest sequential growth, given the size and pace of the changeover. When they get done though they will have ridden themselves of a low margin portion operation, which is why they point to 2001 for explosive growth. This quarter is the most confusing I've seen since I've been watching MRVC. I fully understand the analyst's frustration, that they apparently can't share more information about Luminent revs, etc. Short term movement, who knows? Looking at those percentages owned, I would think UP. And once this becomes clearer - WAY UP. But, right now, who really knows? If you are long, and have held so far, continuing to hold is an easy decision, I would think, as huge gains have to come by 2001. If you want in, buy on dips. If you want out, who knows when is best? All I know is, if I were short I would be REALLY NERVOUS after what happened in February. And If I was PLANNING to short MRVC today, well GOOD LUCK - it's a real crap shoot.