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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Insitu who wrote (43732)	4/28/2000 10:57:00 AM
From: SC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

I think a lot of the 31% is already priced into the current valuation of the stock. Everyone, including the strident microsoft supporters already knows what the plaintiffs are asking for, and everyone assumes the judge will give the plaintiffs what they want. Everyone also knows that microsoft will appeal and either way this will end up being appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court could decide not to hear the case but most observers are betting that they will. What no one knows is whether or not microsoft will prevail on appeal. I think this is comatose money and will trade in a range between $60-90 until this all plays out. There may be a spike if the appeals court rules in microsofts favor on some or all points of the suit, followed by a spike down when the DOJ appeals to the Supreme court. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules there will either be a spike down or a spike up. If DOJ prevails through all the appeals, after the initial spike down, the stock will be comatose for 2-3 years until the muddy water clears. Once people can make calculated guesses as to how the different pieces will do post-breakup, I suspect there will be a sustained but probably not explosive rally. As CT would say this is JMHO, how do you see it? Steve