To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (102359 ) 4/28/2000 8:52:00 PM From: H James Morris Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
Glenn, The other day you asked me about AT&T wireless. As I told you...I'll pass. >Is AT&T Wireless Ready for Its Close Up? No. Not according to the media, which mostly tossed tomatoes at the new company. The debut of AT&T's tracking stock for its wireless unit didn't rocket, but given conditions, "it did pretty decently," starting the day just under $32 and closing up with a gain a bit over $2, CNBC commentator Darby Mullany shrugged after the market closed on Thursday. Pretty decently? We're talking a Net play here, dammit, and one with an expected $2 billion in revenue the first quarter. How the mighty have fallen. CNBC's reception, lukewarm by the cable channel's standards, was about as much enthusiasm as the media mustered for the deal all week. While analysts frothed over the potential riches, print and online pundits wagged their collective fingers at individual investors. "With an IPO this large, AT&T must have something hot to sell. Whether you should buy is another question," Business Week columnist Robert Barker cautioned. What's the problem? For starters, it's a tracking stock, so no buyout could happen without AT&T's approval, Barker pointed out, and that could be a big drawback for shareholders looking to maximize their investment. Sure, AT&T Wireless has good bones, Worldly Investor chimed in, noting that at 12 million, the unit's subscriber base is healthy - but it's still half the size of market leader Verizon Wireless, the joint venture between Bell Atlantic and Vodafone. If BellSouth and SBC Communications successfully team their wireless operations, AT&T Wireless quickly becomes a supporting player in the number-three spot. The deal's 17 underwriters have nothing on pushy stage moms, shoving their youngin' into the glare of the spotlight in the hopes of a quick buck, according to Worldly Investor columnist Kelly Black. While the Goldman Sachs-led team no doubt eyes the $45-billion market cap of Sprint PCS, the uber tracking stock, poor AT&T Wireless can barely fend for itself. It boasted profitability in 1997 and 1998, but racked up $321 million in losses in 1999 despite revenues of $7.6 billion, Black pointed out. IPO Financial Network president David Menlow accurately predicted there'd be no opening-day pop for AT&T Wireless. "I like this long term, but investors won't be getting the bang for the buck that they've been spoiled with over the past few years," he told CNBC.com earlier this week. Some productions give off the whiff of mediocrity before the curtain ever goes up on them, and AT&T wireless proved one of them. The Static in That AT&T Wireless IPObusinessweek.com Will AT&T Fade After Wireless IPO?cnbc.com Hang Up on AT&T Wirelessnews.morningstar.com AT&T Wireless IPO Tethered to Shaky Marketsworldlyinvestor.com