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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: that_crazy_doug who wrote (108244)	4/28/2000 1:57:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1575939

<< Granted, this assumes no big price war with Intel. If AMD is in a price war, Intel will lose profitability and have a HUGE drop in their stock. The PE for AMD is much lower and thus will not get anywhere near the same hit, if any. >> I agree if there is a price war that AMD is in a much better position to win. We can make more money on lower ASPs, and our PE is no where near as high so we don't need nearly as much money to justify our price. That's why I give AMD a price target of $300 even though I disagree with the $200 ASP. doug, Intel has a history of manu. chips at very low prices, AMD does not.....if there is a price war, AMD will be hurt badly. AMD's only hope right now is that Intel (because of its screwups) can not afford to show a bad quarter earnings wise.....bad in the sense that their profit margins are reduced, not eliminated; meaning they can afford only to wage a price 'skirmish' and not a price war. Intel is still a very mean war machine and AMD need not forget that. ted

To: that_crazy_doug who wrote (108244)	4/28/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 1575939

Dear Doug: Have you checked the "leaked" prices. The 700 Mhz has a MSRP of $171. Assuming a 30% markup (more than I think), the result would be an ASP of $120. Also Celeron and K6 combined does not exceed Coppermine, Katmai and Athlon. If it does, Intel is lying about their ASP and mix. For most of this year, the mix will include K6. Thus the lineup will be, in order of increasing performance, K6, Duron + Athlon, Thunderbird + Corvette, and Mustang. I think Duron will not in 2000 be greater than shipped Athlon, Thunderbird, Corvette and Mustang combined. Possibly in 2001. But that is not the period for which we are discussing Q2 thru Q4 this year and only the Athlon derivatives. Thus 40% * 100 (D) + 20% * 200 (A) + 30% * 300 (T) + 5% * 600 (M) + 5% * 300 (C) = 215. Pete