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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prosperous who wrote (48562)	4/28/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Hemant, generally speaking gold stocks are a sector that's moving inversely to the market in general most of the time. the best stocks are imo the South African producers, as they pay good dividends: AU, HGMCY and GOLD. i like the North American producers NEM, HM and BMG as well. also PDG. ABX has very good assets, but also a very large hedge book, which means it's a safer investment as long as the PoG is drifting down, but gives you less bang for your buck if and when the PoG moves up. since the whole XAU has a market cap smaller than E-Bay's, i would say the risks are very limited at this stage. the biggest risk is actually that of opportunity costs, as no-one knows for sure when the excitement will finally come back into the sector. but if you're believing in buying low, well here's your chance. note that the gold stocks are most probably a trading buy as well here. they frequently have sharp short-lived rallies whenever the over-shorted gold market threatens to lose it's calm. regards, hb

To: prosperous who wrote (48562)	4/28/2000 2:59:00 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hemant, OT Take a look at AEM. Cash costs are up this quarter because they are cleaning up a deposit to be closed but their cash costs will be around $100/oz when the new production comes on line soon. Suggest going into gold stocks in steps, I don't know where the bottom is (IMHO, 268 or so) but there is one somewhere! biz.yahoo.com Disclosure, I bought today at 5 3/8, 8 for 10 profitable trades on this one in the last 15 months, best gain about 40%. If I would be more patient, it would have been 10 for 10. Then again, with the gold stocks the last few years, patience is NOT a virtue. BTW, if gold ever does become other than a relic again (say 330 plus and stay for awhile!), the chart on this would go to the low 20's. No guarantees, just my opinions and experience. PS, like Heinz, I also like NEM, BMG, PDG and HM in that order. I also agree they move contrary to the market, but not always closely. Best of luck, Roebear