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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MHS who wrote (19411)4/28/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27311
 
MHS, I believe his reasoning is that without any sales, the current burn rate is pretty close to $10 MM per quarter. The IDB money, (if memory serves) is actually closer to $40 MM, but I believe we already used a little of it (the Irish give access to it as miles stones are achieved I believe, and the lion share is probably to finance accounts receivable and inventories). Thus, Larry's argument should really go like that, you had $31 MM in the bank last December, you burned $10 MM in the first quarter, and unless you start and cover your overhead with production, you burn another $10 MM this quarter. He also believes that the liabilities on the book need to be paid at once, but I disagree with him on that, none of these were "bank lines of credit", thus there is no real urgency there.

My point is much simpler, the CFO has arranged financing before, and in hindsight, actually saved the company from the concerted effort of CC to get it down the drain (in hindsight, the same "on time financing" that Larry was so critical of, where actually a master stroke in "financial engineering", keeping the boat afloat through the floorless attack and then getting a major investment in when the stock launched (and I think it was quite wise not to try and guess the peak, but get cash in at the $15 or so area, a bird in the hand is better than two on the tree). I have no reason to assume that this able CFO will not plan ahead of time to provide whatever cash is necessary to keep the boat afloat till the cavalry (mass production) comes in.

My main worry, and I will not be able to ascertain whether it is a phantom worry or not until the next quarterly report comes in) is how profitable is the current production, what kind of gross margin are we really getting, and is my guesstimate of $75 MM annual shipping rate sufficient to cover the $40 MM or so in yearly operating costs.

Zeev