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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob s who wrote (1825)	4/28/2000 11:17:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2561

Bob, It's hard to know where the REITs are going to settle into ranges after the 2 year downward pressure. They get slammed if the FFO disappointed, and continue to run if they are large, and viewed by the street as in a decent sector (not health care) and not overleveraged. Technically, GLB and HRP are the only ones in your list that are acting dead in the water. I expect PLD to pop soon, as FR & CNT have run a lot further. PLD and PSA are almost the only 2 quality REITs that are way under year ago high. BDN should run some, but I recall that a large amount of debt is variable, which will hurt them later as rates continue up. EQR is the granddaddy of all the REITs as far as I can see. The ^RMS and EQR charts can almost be overlaid. I'd trade the GLB for the GLB preferred A, since the dividends are close, and the safety is much higher with the preferreds. HRP is constrained by SNH, so I'd be patient. NHP is risky, but likely to be worth the risk, as we don't know how much the nursing home crunch is going to hurt them. ASN is fairly priced, but if REITs run some more, it will be part of it. Gregor, I think gold is dead for a while until panic hits in terms of economies getting slammed. With Greenspan sparring severely with inflation, it doesn't appear that there can be much inflation for long, so why bother investing with gold. And with the hedge funds getting too big for their britches, it's harder for gold to swing so much. The first leg of the ^RMS run was up 38-40 points, before retreating about 18. Now it's up 35 or so on the second leg, so it may stall out after another 3-7 points and pull back 20 again. The test will likely be if EQR holds 45. Apparently this REIT rally has been without the benefit of mutual fund inflows. If tech selling occurs again, and dividends are equated with safety, we may get a big pop, but I think a lot of REIT holders want out if the economy is slowing down simultaneously with steep interest rates. I'm pretty much holding on to most of my positions, bailing out if FFO didn't grow and ready to start trading for the 5-8% swings in a few weeks. Richard SUS had a weird charge that may be one time, so it may be a bargain. EPR and CARS seem to be misunderstood to me. Both have continually raised FFO and earnings, and appear to be dirt cheap on a P/E basis as well as a P/FFO.