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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (2731)	4/29/2000 2:38:00 AM
From: Lost to Voodoo	Respond to of 19219

Ouch.

To: Stcgg who wrote (2731)	4/30/2000 1:52:00 PM
From: Stcgg	Respond to of 19219

Ed Downs on the Markets - Week of May 1st.. Dow Weak, Nasdaq Shows Promise.. Watch the NASDAQ for a new push up off 3,800, and/or a downside break in the S&Ps Today was a "stage-setting" day. While the NASDAQ certainly did rally as we thought it would, the rally was not really that sustained. And, the SP indexes traded sideways to form consolidations in the intraday charts. As I look at all the evidence, here is what I see: We were looking for a explosive rally in the NASDAQ and didn't quite get it. If I look at the 60 Minute Chart on this index, I see that while we did break the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle consolidation, we are still within the consolidation range (that is, we are below the high formed by the start of the triangle). So, we aren't out of the woods yet. If the NASDAQ had rallied another 100 points today I wouldn't be worried, but since it just putzed around, I for one am still on my guard, even though some NASDAQ stocks, like VTSS, gained a boatload today. The Dow drifted lower, led by AXP and other old economy financials. We went through my 10,750 level by about 20 points, and are just sliding on down. Again, the Diamond in the Weekly Chart has me concerned longer term. I don't expect it to come into play just yet - but we must remain en guarde. Watch the lower boundary of the consolidation, 10,600 as a "last ditch" support level. If we go through that one, I'd say the Dow has probably had it in the short term. We certainly could be going into a "bipolar" market where the NASDAQ rallies in the face of a declining Dow. Hard to say right now. I would reasonably expect the Dow to hold at 10,600 but will be more than happy to go short if it doesn't. Go back and look at that Diamond pattern. It's real, folks. If we break 10,500 -- look out below... Let's talk about the SP Indexes for a moment. If you look at an intraday chart of the SP100, particularly in the 15 minute timeframe, you can see that we basically went sideways to form a very nice triangle consolidation, which we can watch for breaks. On the downside, keep a watch on 780 on the OEX and 1440 on the SP 500. If we fail and break these levels, that could spell trouble - especially if the Dow is also pressing 10,600. The OEX closed at 781, so it probably will break 780 due to jitters. I'd give it another 5 points or so before considering the event to confirm bearishness on the old economy. In a nutshell, I'm modestly bullish the NASDAQ (with caution), neutral on the Dow and S&Ps. Monday morning, if the NASDAQ starts up with any conviction at all, jump on the train and hang on. If the S&Ps push through support and the Dow looks weak, you have to short the banks, financials, and other old economy stocks. The best of both worlds would be another Rising NAS/ Declining DOW situation. Something tells me it's not going to be that easy. The consolidation in the NASDAQ chart is my best technical pattern right now, followed by the triangles in the SP indexes. Watch the boundaries of these patterns carefully. My best guess is, we will rally Monday on the NASDAQ and decline on the others. Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading... Ed Downs edowns@nirvsys.com >><<