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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65478)	4/28/2000 9:30:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

You raise some excellent questions. While I don't "know" the answers, I would like to contribute to an answer for those I have some info on. - Will OPEC comply to present quota's ? According to Saudi Arabia, OPEC compliance will be very high because most members are pumping at capacity to meet quotas. The interest of OPEC members in Western development confirms this statement. - Will the seasonal build level off and will we start seeing draws ? We have not seen any build on gasoline, which is the critical product to be building, in the past two weeks. Venezuela will not be making a large, previously expected, contribution to this years gas build. While this is bullish, it actually disturbs me because I need gas, and we are at dangerously low levels. We already know from truck and SUV sales that we will have another record driving season. - Will Futures Traders support Crude at $25ish ? They might not be as important a factor as usual in the near term. Refiners will HAVE to start buying crude to build the gas stocks. We will also have Japan, China, Korea, etc out there competing to buy excess supplies overseas. The foolish speculators were crucified last year. I suspect that not even Larry (I hate the oil industry) Kudlow is foolish enough to short crude under current circumstances, especially given OPEC's resolve to hold up prices. IMO They WILL reduce output if prices fall and stay down. They are NOT going to let 1998/9 repeat itself. - Will the present Cap Ex spending trickle down by 2H 2000 to light the fire under the OSX stocks ? I beleive you have an excellent point here. As balance sheets are repaired more cash will pour into the drillbit. It won't happen this quarter, and probably not next quarter, but it will happen. The real question is, will they be foolish and go back into debt up to the gills? I don't think so. If they were going to do that, why repair the balance sheets in the first place? - Will the E&P & Integrated's get the valuation multiple expansion that their present earnings & commodity prices signal they should, or will the market make the bet on commodities reverting to the mean & OPEC cheating ? No comment. I am biased but have no facts indicating a direction. - Will the Oil Majors participate - RD reports next week, maybe that will help ? No idea. - Was this NASDQ recovery just a head-fake, setting up the Big Bang collapse yet to come - triggering a total market meltdown ? I believe it was a head fake, but think we might experience the death of a thousand pin pricks over the spring and summer rather than a meltdown. - Will Greenspan take his foot off the brake, will he "ease" merely another .25 basis points - which is allready completely priced & factored into the market, or will he hit us between the eyes with a .50 basis point hike ? I agree with Jim on this one. Inflation is worse than people think due to the lag time from cause and effect. Greenspan will not ease off. I expect several quarter point hikes coming this year.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65478)	4/29/2000 6:30:00 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, Big Bull, Jim P. and Q ... good posts all! Count me as one who is appreciative of the contributions you folks make to the board. The price of admission is well worth the opportunity to be able to communicate with you folks. Thank you! I hope you don't mind if I go off topic a little here, since it is the weekend and it's usually slow around here on weekends. Slider, this off topic post is the result of your insights and contributions. WHAT SEPARATES THE MEN FROM THE BOYS IN WEB-HOSTING SERVICES, ONE OF THE INTERNET'S FASTEST GROWING MARKETS? This was the leading paragraph in a story about WCOM in this past Thursday's edition of Investors Business Daily. WCOM says the answer is it's fat communications pipes. The company owns the largest Internet backbone - or high-speed fiber-optic lines that move data globally. Because they own high-speed access and a global network, they are in position to do hosting as good or better than anyone else. Demand for really high-capacity hosting and co-location is going to explode as more Web sites add multimedia content. WCOM can throw as much bandwidth at it as necessary. WCOM provides space, hookups to its long-distance network, and network bandwidth on demand. Small companies pay about $1,000 a month for Web-hosting services, midsize firms about $15,000 and large companies about $125,000. On April 13, Morgan Stanley stated that WCOM, in their view, is the best play on the exponential growth of the Internet among the large established telecom players. Earnings Growth - The 1999 EPS of $1.33 represents roughly 200% growth over 1998. For 2000, MWD is looking for $1.87, a 43% increase over 1999. Additionally, all of the senior executives have substantial amounts of their net worth invested in the company. Their price/earnings-to-growth rate ratio is incredible, especially when compared to their competitors. AT&T....................... 1.8 Bell Atlantic.............. 1.7 BellSouth.................. 2.2 GTE.......................... 1.6 Qwest Comm........... 5.6 SBS Comm.............. 1.6 Sprint......................... 2.4 US West.................... 2.9 MCI WorldCom........... 0.8 For those of you who aren't familiar with a PEG ratio, 1.0 equals fair value. The closer to 1 the better, under 1 is outstanding when looking for under-valued stocks. Low valuation, a high-growth business and selling just above 52 week lows makes this stock an attractive target, in my opinion. Revenues rose 8.5%, gross margins improved significantly and trading at a significant discount to their peers. Here is a link that may shed some light on the subject. streetadvisor.com ------------------------------------------------------------ Analyst Kevin Roe of ABN-AMRO stated that WCOM "is the singular most mis-priced company in the industry." Roe reiterated a "BUY" after WCOM released their excellent numbers for the past quarter earlier in the week. biz.yahoo.com In fact, 28 of 29 analysts following WCOM give it a moderate or strong buy. ------------------------------------------------------------ Technically speaking, WCOM looks like it's breaking out. siliconinvestor.com ------------------------------------------------------------ According to Todd Truitt of Streetadvisor.com, the company represents a solid long-term investment for investors seeking growth at a very good price. streetadvisor.com ------------------------------------------------------------ I must admit that I did place my toe in the water and purchased a small piece of WCOM when it dipped yesterday. It was nice to see it finish up for the day. Now can someone please tell me if a Yellow Rose of Texas beats a Belle of Tennessee? dabum