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Technology Stocks : eToys Inc. (ETYS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Lubin who wrote (1108)	5/5/2000 8:37:00 PM
From: Joe Mintz	Respond to of 1330

Beating the Proverbial Dead Horse (Just in time for the Kentucky Derby.) Interesting that LEH comes out with a neutral rating. At 7 dollars a share. Hard to find a better example of lagging indicators. Perhaps it's time to short LEH if you haven't already done so. Several months ago, there were upgrades to strong buy at 60-80 by "respected" institutions. Don't get me wrong; there may have been signs of some excess at that point. But there were nonetheless solid reasons for believing in the future success of ETYS and investing even at those levels, with regard for risk. Optimism dominated the time. Generally, it can be somewhat instructive to go back and read posts from November to December. Think about that. A strong buy at 60-80. Neutral at 7. A matter of months. Buy at the top. Liquidate at the bottom. The only thing that has really changed is SENTIMENT. And boy has it changed. This one deserves a chapter in financial history. In fact, partly because of this drastic decline in feelings toward some new economy stocks like ETYS, two of the greatest fund managers of our time (debatably) have just taken the exit. I have seen this type of sentiment cycle time and time again, but what we have witnessed here has been almost violent. The difference in the mode of thought between December and now seems astounding. For those looking long-term, the e-tailers have gone through their cycle of euphoria and shakeout. The recovery process could require a lot of waiting, and there may not be a lot to talk about. Shorts may draw attention to additional tidbits of bad news to support positions that no longer have good risk/reward profiles. The truth is, those factors conducive to the eventual success of ETYS remain mostly relevant. Sentiment, a fickle beast, will wander back. Sadly, most participants will probably not demonstrate enough patience to reap the benefits. The time for discussion is over. It's time to wait. Within 3 years, we will see an entirely different picture. JM