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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biotech Jim who wrote (7911)	4/30/2000
From: Vector1	Respond to of 9719

Thanks Jim, Interesting to me that you have MDRX and ABGX as two of the stocks getting close to their previous highs. I added PDLI over the past month after as large a percentage decline as any biotech company. IMO the patent issue in Europe is overblown. The monoclonal antibody technology companies are obvious beneficiaries of genomics. With hundreds of new targets MABs are obvious ways to attack the targets. Over the next 10 years this area is going to be huge with perhaps as many as 25% of the molecles that enter clinical trials being anit-bodies.I choose PDLI over ABGX and MDRX because I thought the valuation of PDLI created a much better value. PDLI's MAB deals are for molecules that are much closer to approval and thus on a discounted cash flow valuation analysis PDLI is much cheaper. In simple terms,their likely cash flow over the next five years is much greater. A number of people beleive that PDLI's humanization technology will be rendered obsolete by the fully human antibodies developed using MDRX and ABGX Xeno-Mouse technology. My question is where is the compelling evidence that fully human antibodies are better. Humanized MABs like Herceptin, Synagis and Zenapax are proven winners. Are companies that have already entered the clinic or that have done extensive preclinical testing on a humanized MAB going to change midstream, shelve the molecule and start anew with a fully humanized version. Are we better off paying a much higher multiple of cash flow over the next 5 years for ABGX or MDRX or have we found a bargain in PDLI. Biofreaks, I need your help on this. V1