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To: Roebear who wrote (65497)	4/29/2000 1:49:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear, one last word on the subject. Lets say refiners need to process 1.5 mbpd of crude to meet gasoline demand and begin a teensy build in distillates. That means refineries at some point will have to draw 7.5 mb per week based on a five day working week. If they run some weekends you are looking at 9 mbpw draw on crude. Uh oh, thats the whole build for basis API for the past two weeks. So if I'm even close with my numbers the crude build will slow dramatically when refiners get busy. The seasonal peak in the crude build is only 2 weeks away. Imo you may see some real nasty draws after that and heading into September. Now, if the refiners decide to just meet gasoline demand and begin to build a normal build in distillates you're looking at the need for +10 mbpw. Is OPEC sending us that much? I don't think so. So this means the OSX has to survive only two weeks and probably won't see the massive declines some predict. BWDIK. If anybody thinks that my numbers are screwy please please please critique them. I implore you. Especially you SLider. ;0}