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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16987)	4/29/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 35685

Agree with all you said, Jim. Whether or not the economy is actually slowing down, the Fed will cook the revisions to meet whatever actions it wants to pursue. The risk, as you said, is that the Fed slows the economy at a time when it is slowing on its own. That not only can push us into a recession, but creates the very bubbles and imbalances they are worried about. There is still a lot of liquidity out there, and it will chase whatever is still working. When you take out the financials and other interest rate-sensitive stocks, as well as old economy stocks that depend on borrowed money, you are left with the new techs and little else. Remember a couple of years back, when the worry was deflation rather than inflation? I still believe that on a worldwide scale deflation is the bigger risk. The Asian recovery is very fragile, Japan is still in the tank, Europe is slow in adopting new technology and free-market reforms, and a US recession may just tip the whole thing over. Hope I'm wrong.