To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (5048 ) 4/30/2000 6:33:00 PM From: Seeker of Truth Respond to of 6020
Thanks, Edwin, for this interesting article. I ask everyone, "Do you think Philipowski is right when he says companies only last a decade?" On one hand his criticism of many established companies, that they are out to avoid risk and do exactly what they've been doing only still better, is a valid criticism. An example is IBM and the mainframes, relegating PC's to an almost ignorable phenomenon. These days young people in North America simply don't plan on spending all their days in the same company. The small company can be dynamic all right. But I continue to think that in addition to decaying old companies there will also be old companies that know how to transform themselves as the technology changes and advances. Particularly interesting in this regard are computer service companies and startup incubators. SFE, for example, has been in business for decades and the major computer service companies go on and on, also for decades. Currently the market evidently thinks that venture capital is in excess of the real demand from capable people for capital. So CMGI and Softbank shares are way down from their highs. I personally think that long term the experienced venture capitalists are in short supply. Evaluating nascent technology is not easy. Those with experience and know how and access to capital will grow and grow. I'm extremely dubious about predictions of a near term further price recovery in 9984 but the long term is great and Softbank will grow for decades, unlike what Filipowski thinks. But the Softbank of 2005 may not be financing internet startups. Something else, probably. Any other opinions?