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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (25060)	4/30/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: VanScott	Respond to of 57584

This should make Tom Brokaw's, the fleecing of America.http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000429/bs/retail_mattel_1.html

To: Rande Is who wrote (25060)	4/30/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 57584

Will "Profit Often" be the title of your new book? Just giving you an idea. You too can be a Guru. Speaking of profits, I saw a hard bottom bounce on ANF, URBN, BEBE type stocks last week with large short positions which will now need to cover, recent downgrades (1-3 days after is often the bottom), numerous rate hikes factored in, still great earnings, small floats, no debt, expansions planned, any bad news factored in etc. ANF at 11 for instance is a stellar buy IMHO. Even if you have to wait until November you will have a double I think. Bought both ANF and URBN near bottoms the other day and will now turn to my old heartbreaker BEBE as well. AEOS, TOM in same boat. COMS seems ready to pop to me. Has based below 40 for quite a time now. Alcatel takeover rumors might spike more interest. A safe play in any case as I think the bottom is 37. UIS below 24 seems about as safe as they come to me. Only a matter of time. Double digit earnings returning soon. Should easily make it back to high 30's sometime this year. DT takeover talks might still be happening. A definite takeover possibility, as is COMS. Looking at catching a bottom on T. Post-IPO sinking has to stop soon. But the best tech buys of all of course are on crash days. When fear and loathing rule the day. Specialty retailers though are still selling at crash day prices.

To: Rande Is who wrote (25060)	4/30/2000 2:28:00 PM
From: mozoneman	Respond to of 57584

You're a gem. Thank you for a very generous post. It makes a good and enjoyable Sunday reading <g>. Huan

To: Rande Is who wrote (25060)	4/30/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: mozoneman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Forgot to mention, Your post is also educational and profitable for me... <g> Hope I can repay somehow in the future... Huan

To: Rande Is who wrote (25060)	4/30/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: john722	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande . Do You Still Stand By This post of yours (seems like you have recently changed your position. If so, please enlighten us to the reasoning behind your change - thank you)?: To: Joe Lyddon who wrote (23733) From: Rande Is Wednesday, Apr 12, 2000 11:25 AM ET Reply # of 23743 Joe, in my opinion. . .tech stocks will continue bouncing off the ceiling. . . . the ceiling will not just keep going up as it has. So seasonal buying will beat buy and hold. For example, CSCO is at 184 times earnings. . . .it isn't headed for 500 times earnings. . . . it will remain in a "trading range" of sorts in the long term of lets say between 100 and 200 times earnings. BRCM is at 461 times earnings. . . and I believe it will remain in a trading range as well. . . . buying here for a 2 year hold with hopes of a double. . .assumes that it will reach 922 times earnings. That is a pretty risky bet. Whereas, waiting for it to reach 200 times earnings and playing it to say 350 times over and over would theoretically yield gains. . . . whereas holding may actually show losses over time. Yes, I am weighting my examples to make a point. But consider this. . . in order to buy and hold a tech stock here, you must believe that price to earnings ratios are fair and the stocks are valued fairly. . . .in other words, you believe that earnings will continue to rise in a dramatic way, thus justifying ridiculous valuations. I think that buying and holding techs is playing too risky. . . . whereas trading them is far less risky. Now, as for those socking their money into stocks and mutual funds. . . .they had better take an active interest in their holdings. . . .or their returns would have been better at their local savings and loan. I believe techs will sell off further than most others can even imagine!! 60 to 80 percent selloffs of many tech stocks would not surprise me in the least. For example. . . . I'm looking for VRSN to hit 80 [nearly 70% from high]. . . .AMAT to break 60. . .CSCO to hit the low 40's. . .RMBS back under 100 . . . a drop of 75%. . .CIEN to 60. . . INKT to 65. . .QCOM to 65. . .AMCC under 50. . . VIGN under 50. . .TERN back mid-40's. . .INSP back below 30. . .PMCS back to mid 60's. . .JNPR to touch 100. . . CMRC back under 60. . .same with AKAM. . .and CMGI. . .BVSN to 19. . . MMPT to 12. . .CORL under 5. . .JDSU and A to 60. . .ARBA under 40. . . Get the picture?