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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65511)	4/30/2000 5:26:00 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 95453

"I would view the OSX as having perhaps a max of 15% upside here, given we are now entering the non-news event driven period between earnings seasons; which leaves only commodity prices, or macro events as the remaining catalysts. As such, I would take profits off the table on the basis of perhaps taking 30% off the table for each 5% to 7.5% rise in value's here. I would also play what is perhaps the last "Great" rotation into a valuation anomaly." One of the drillers I hold is Precision Drilling. Their Alberta operations are about to encounter the end of the "spring breakup" period. This should lead to a full out drilling market this summer and fall. Bob

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65511)	4/30/2000 7:21:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 95453

Slider, Did you not just two days ago critisize XTO for hedging the 2nd quarter NG production at $3? "Also, that many E&P's hit the wall here with $3 Nat Gas and especially with the Majors & Integrateds getting sold off on tremendous upside surprises in their recent earnings reporting - is the major warning flag imo." Are you now thinking $3 is the short term peak or is it just the market interpretation that you are referring to? hdr

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65511)	4/30/2000 7:31:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, you make some tremendous points. To me the market psychology on the OSX will turn on whether Mr Market puts weight on the looming product shortage story or the OPEC is blowing it story. I hasten to remind you that, while it is true that crude sold off going into the API numbers, it rallied fairly strongly immediately thereafter, indicating no great conviction in the bear case. A lot of tension is building on the OSX tape here. A triangle pattern is clearly forming, which in this case could be seen as a continuation pattern. This is confirmed by MACD buy signals in many many individual stock charts. CAM and BHI are very strong looking charts. Many of the drillers have MACD buys. Since I am now 60 - 40 stock/cash I am biased bullish consistent with my technical tea leaves. Call me a "nervous bull", though <G>. The short term technicals are overbought and seem to agree with the notion you put forth of some kind of sell off near term. Depending on price action during the morning hours I may decide to take a few chips off the table, on a very short term basis. I expect the OSX to drift off to the 112 level. Then comes the acid test. If we hold through API's and rally again, it may be the breakout. The technicals are telling us that time is running out for indecision. BTW, If the market embraces the product shortage scenario the potential for upside is greater than 15% imo. Until the production situation is resolved I see less downside risk. To me the key numbers to watch are not absolute crude levels but refinery run numbers. I'm ok with where I am right now. Sorry Slider, BHI, CAM, SESI and the drillers (all drillers) are starting to look real good on a pb here. Thats were I'm going with my money

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65511)	5/1/2000 7:33:00 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, I think there is no question that the Fed has fallen behind the curve on inflation, and given the results of the last Fed meeting, the pressure to catch up is rapidly intensifying. I would conclude that the chances for less than a 50bp rate increase are very slim for the following reasons: 1. It is clear that Fed rate hikes to-date have not slowed the economy, nor had much impact on consumer and investor sentiment. 2. The recent GDP, PCD and ECI numbers all confirm without question that what we have feared was going to happen for some time, has now happened. The ECI numbers are much worse than they appear when you factor in benefits, which are not included. The ECI numbers will be the knockout blow for the Fed. 3. Money expansion and the wealth effect have increased consumption to a level that can not be sustained. Real domestic demand growth grew at an 8% rate in the first quarter. 4. Consumer sentiment is still sky high. 5. Employment prospects are still excellent, and there is little fear of an end to the financial wealth boom that has taken place. If the Fed does not act quickly, the only solution to the problem is rapidly becoming a that a recession will be the only recourse to return the economy to price stability. This will most likely led to a bear market. If the Fed does act quickly (as it should) the chances that the market will crack are very high. So we are in a lose or lose position as a result of the Feds failure to respond timely and as a result of monetary expansion that was clearly unjustified over the last two years. The real question for those who have been here before is what impact that will this have on the oil patch. My only comparison would be the 70's, when oil induced inflation led to a recession and oil and gas (and gold) stocks were the only stocks that did well in what was then a bear market. I do fear a crack in the market, but my mouse finger is pretty fast, and I think it will be temporary and create opportunities. I would be interested in other peoples thoughts of staying investing in the patch at a time when the economic events to follow have become fairly clear. I have lowered my margin down to 35%, but I am still more than 100% invested in the patch. Jim