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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (1692)	4/30/2000 4:09:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 2103

The treasury bond has broken its uptrend and is nearing completion of the top. A break below 96 would confirm the top has been broken. Even a $ 3 billion dollar 'buyback' couldn't help the bond last week. People are getting desensitized to that trick.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (1692)	4/30/2000 8:44:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

More of why I think we are on thin Ice In the message before this I mentioned finding not just a record number of mutual Funds that have closed to new investors , but such a HUGE amount of them there has never been anything like it in history.. And I pointed at what happened to most of the ones in the past that closed once the market went down. The market lost the leadership it had ; switching horses to the SOX..that may hold it for a while..and we could sure enough rally, but I doubt we make a new high or even get back to the old one before we head back down to towards a new low. --------------- Before looking at the catch22 the funds all put themselves in I was looking At the VERY STRONG DOLLAR..it's broke out to new highs.. the odd thing IS that the stock market did not make new highs even with the strong dollar and that indicates a lot of distribution of stocks. With the dollar so bullish we should be setting record highs in stocks instead of trying to recover. I'm not ready to short yet as markets go up when shorts are heavy and the VIX is to high for me to want to short. It's not true that Bulls buy the TOPS..the tops are mostly made by shorts being forced to cover With the Dollar so strong the rally could well go on.. What I'll be looking for is CNBC to start putting on guest who are crying about how BAD the strong dollar is and that we can't sell anything because it's so strong..spin spin spin..I'll also be looking for the SOX to start giving ground..before I even think about going short, or the dollar to drop real fast..but I think it will follow stocks down when it goes. ------------------ The way I see the market in general is it don't matter what sector is leading the market tends to follow it.. at tops rotation hits and the market pumps trying to get every last drop of blood out of the mullets and shorts before it takes its' real dive. Then when he real fall comes the dollar drops like a rock..the big boys don't buy until the dollar makes a bottom then they do forex swaps and get in with cheap dollars getting both the benefit of price drop along with the benefit of using cheaper dollars to get back in. That last sell off didn't do that..so I think we still have that to face..however as long as long as the dollar stays this high they will simply distribute stocks in a controlled way, we might even see other markets start down first and see the US as a safe heaven again running us to a new high..but I won't bet on that ---------------- Inflation with the dollar setting new record highs.. who does CreemSpam think he is kidding.. What happens when he jacks up and jacks up and jacks up rates..is money for new ventures gets hard to come by hence competition is stiffled..the BIG boys get pricing power for a time.</> AND that's has more to do with creating inflation than all the drivel about tight labor markets that comes out of his month. Wages get sucked back into the system..and help finance all the competition that keeps prices in line.. It's when competition is killed off we get inflation.. at least it is more of a cause than wages. But he has such a one track mind except he knows how to cover his ass good. ------------------ Really infation is marked more by the value of the dollar when it falls in value you have inflation..so all the infation noise with the dollar making new highs is pure crap. One more rate hike could set us up for a real resession..unempoyment lines and all, but all that takes time to work it's way into the system in fact we may already be set up. --------------- I'm flipping stocks on strong days..but I'm not holding onto anything for very long. Jim