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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48725)	4/30/2000 5:08:00 PM
From: el paradisio	Respond to of 99985

Michael,You are absolutely right about VIX,this is one of my concern as well. The second one is this: siliconinvestor.com That spikes of volume before the close,short covering.... My system is one story and has still a bullish signal on NDX/NASDAQ, me is a person with some brain. I agree,everything looks bullish so far,but I would not be surprised,if after a gap up or rally 50 points up,we will not go down again to 20 MA on 1 month chart,which around 3700. el paradisio

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48725)	4/30/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

`Monetize Shareholder Ignorance' Buffett, who shuns technology shares, marvelled that Internet companies that couldn't borrow $100 million as private companies have market caps of more than $10 billion through initial public offerings. ``The ability to monetize shareholder ignorance has probably never been exceeded,'' said Buffett. ``It's as extreme as anything that happened in the 1920s. It's precautionary to us.'' Munger, who is renown as Buffett's normally taciturn sidekick, was animated during the six-hour question-and-answer period, particularly about the topic of excessive valuation in the U.S. stock market. ``It's hard to think of a time when stocks and real estate grew so rapidly,'' said Munger. ``It's as extreme as its been in modern capitalism. There's so much easy money around, it's a very unusual period.'' Munger said the recent tumble of shares of Internet companies may not be over and suggested there are more declines to come. ``We use the phrase 'wretched excess' because there are wretched consequences,'' said Munger, who compared the run up in technology shares to a Ponzi scheme and a chain letter. bloomberg.com

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48725)	5/1/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Turning points in my opinion are best uncovered using price (and often volume) alone. On the other hand, there's a ton of people that look at common indicators and if they think a MACD cross over, despite the current environment, is bullish, well, they may well act on it and buy like mad. Good comments Michael: Ultimately, it's where the price goes on what volume that determines profit and loss for all of us... : > And yes, if many people act on a particular indicator's signal, it can move the market, for a while, at least... : > I'm not married to any one signal... I try to see what worked in the past... Then I follow the holy grail (price direction relative to news events)... If they are in sync, I go with it, especially if the prevailing sentiment is going the other way... We've had, bad for the market, ECI and MSFT news... Yet the market has shrugged it off... This is a classic contra move against seemingly bad news... We've seen it before, all the way up from Dow 4000... This doesn't mean that the market reverses as FED D-Day nears... But, in the meantime, enjoy... : > stockcharts.com Jim