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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48730)	4/30/2000 6:32:00 PM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

> Bonds have moved up pretty strongly,[..] its normal > for something to move sideways before continuing > course. Then again, it all depends which course you're talking about. users.uswest.net Not hard to imagine the downside on this monthly chart here. users.uswest.net I don't like the way the weekly looks either. Everybody wants to be a contrarian and buy into inflation fears, but it's not always necessarily wise to be too smart. users.uswest.net For a specific trade, if the bonds were to move up very quickly into the 98 area, giving the MACD here no time to recover, I will be a seller probably with a stop in the 99s. A more gradual consolidation would be easier to see as bullish.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (48730)	4/30/2000 7:41:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Just as the Nasdaq "shrugged off" the ECI news, so did the bonds "shrug off" the treasury "buyback". LOL, everyone pointed to the first event as a sign of a bottom, I can go ahead and point to the latter as a top. The steep slope for the respective 21-day EMAs for the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and S&P 100 all indicate loose markets in need of stabilizing or basing. The Dow is the only market with a fairly stable slope for the 21-day EMA. The 21-day volatility is still rising for the 21-day EMAs and for the VIX. In fact, the 21-day stochastic for the VIX again crossed above 20 from below, the second time this week, usually indicative of a near-term peak in the S&P 100. Also, the VIX has bounced off its 50-day moving average again as it did so from July through October of 1998.