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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4508)	5/1/2000 11:47:00 PM
From: Gus	Respond to of 34857

I disagree, Tero. One useful sequence to look at is electrification--->teledensity--->network-centric computing density to keep track of the evolution of the $1 trillion global electronics industry in general and to appreciate how Nokia's market advances feed off the expanding scale economics of the PC business, the consumer electronics business, the industrial automation business, the semiconductor equipment business, etc. *There is no evidence that the profits are migrating to the chipset vendors. There is no single, dominant chipset company in the mobile market if you look at the entire global sales.* It will become more visible. Moore's Law. Texas Instruments already supplies DSPs to 8 of the top 10 basestation vendors. It's 3G OMAP platform has already been adopted by Nokia and Ericsson, the early leaders in 3G infrastructure and handsets. DMOS7 is going to cost $2.2 billion and will give TXN a broad portfolio of deep sub-micron processes -- 0.30m to 0.12m -- unmatched by anybody based outside North America. Intel's leads in microprocessors and flash memory are even more formidable and if you look at how they're going after the network processor business then you might better appreciate their redefinition of itself as a communications company. Do you know of any Japanese or European manufacturer or any combination of both allied with American manufacturers which could potentially come close in those key areas in the next 10 years? Clearly, IP fixed and mobile wireless systems will soon outpace wireline systems as the key driver in the increase of the global teledensity rate from the current 20% to 30% and beyond. Clearly, the increase in the global adoption rate of network-centric computing will depend on how fast global teledensity goes up unless you truly believe that the mobile handset will render the PC obsolete. One useful layman's rule of thumb to use in working through the high-pitched and relentless hype of wireless data is that circuit clocking accounts for roughly 50% of the power consumed in a portable device so as those devices gain more computer-like features in line with Moore's Law, the power requirements go up, mixed-signal technology has to keep up, and advanced packaging needs to make its way into the design and manufacturing processes earlier. That also means that batteries need to pack more power, displays need to adopt to people's persistency of vision (see MSFT's ClearType), and subscription services need to be developed with the clear assumption that wireless services will complement and enhance the networking-centric computing experience, not replace it. A clear case in point is how 'less is more' worked wonders for Palm and how Handspring and Windows CE are going modular to emulate its success in the marketplace.