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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Graybill who wrote (30377)	5/1/2000 4:08:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

the increase in volatility is a sign of decreasing liquidity...and since e.g. the Nasdaq has made a commodity type blow-off move, the increasing volatility foreshadowed the drop that we eventually got. now if you look at the daily charts of all indices, the volatility has steadily increased over recent months, especially since the monetary base has begun to shrink somewhat. with inflation getting into gear, the Fed is in a box...integrity of the currency is ultimately more important than the level of the stock market. so they will have to continue to tap on the brakes...and that may well break the bull. the Nasdaq is imo now close to the point where overhead supply awaits....all those people trapped at much higher prices are just waiting for the opportunity to sell(note the heavy distribution volume that went with the final rally to the highs). all that said, there are obviously stocks out there that represent good value...but only in the context of the overall market's extreme overvaluation. in objective, absolute terms, very little value is out there.