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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: parcival who wrote (30384)	5/1/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

well, if it continues up, it would probably reinforce the negative inflation outlook. right now no-one's really looking...but should the CRB index break out of it's consolidation and move higher, it will begin to worry some people. so in the short term it will only become important if it continues to rise at the pace seen today. i'm going to take a look at the various CRB components tonight...but i know from the COT reports that the commercials are long most of the important commodities and short the debt instruments, so i'm assuming that the CRB has room to rally. some commodities like energy and meat products have been in a bull market for some time now. if the ag commodities and the metals begin to move in earnest, there's potential. all we need now is a falling dollar, and pricing power will return with a vengeance, as the main factor now undercutting it is the foreign competition. the inflation genie seems to be out of the bottle...it'll be interesting to see if the Fed is really going to fight it. if it does, the mountain of outstanding debt could quickly help the secular deflationary trend to return in the form of increasing defaults, loss of investor confidence, etc... an interesting situation.