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To: N. Saliba who wrote (7402)	5/1/2000 6:04:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

DRAM prices rising in May, followed by shortages, warns analyst Semiconductor Business News (05/01/00, 09:05:34 AM EDT) PHOENIX--Contract prices for DRAMs will rise 1-to-2% in May from April after falling 3-to-5% in the first four months of 2000, according to memory analyst Sherry Garber at Semico Research Corp. here. The price increase is a prelude to expected DRAM shortages in the second half of 2000, said Garber, who is forecasting a 47.5% increase in DRAM revenues to $30.6 billion this year over $20.7 billion in 1999. DRAM revenues are now expected to increase by 37.1% to $41.9 billion in 2001, she said. "Depending upon how steep the shortages are in the second half, revenues might even be better for DRAM suppliers," she added. "The May contract prices are starting to look like they are 1-to-2% higher. The significant point is there higher, and there's a little up-tick from April. "April wasn't very good [for DRAM pricing]," said Garber, who last week released a new market report and memory supplier ranking. Samsung Electronics was No. 1 in DRAM sales last year with 23% of the market, followed by Hyundai at 19.3% and Micron Technology with 16.1% share last year. She said NEC was fourth with 9.2% of the DRAM sales in 1999, followed by Toshiba with 7.1% and Infineon with 5.1%. In recent months, seasonal factors caused DRAM prices to drift 3-to-5% lower since the end of 1999, Garber said, but the current increase in average selling prices is occurring several months earlier than normal due to the lack of new memory production capacity and stronger demand for chips. "Samsung is the first to put new capacity in place in the form of a new fab, but it won't be in production until the fourth quarter" Garber said. "There is no major increase in capacity coming on line this year. The increases will be just from incremental shrinks." She noted that lead times for delivery of critical production tools, such as wafer steppers, have stretched out to nine months. "Even if they have their shell they are at least a year away [from production], the analyst added. semibiznews.com