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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (48853)	5/1/2000 9:39:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

We think something similar is in the making that appeared at the double bottom of September 1 to October 8, 1998 lows. Most of the price damage was done at the September 1 low of 1998. At that low the "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE got as high as "7.93". At the recent low of April 14 the "5 day ARMS" hit "8.23" on the NYSE and "12.10" on the NDX. The VIX (Volatility Index) hit a high of 53.43 on the September 1, 1998 and 60.63 on the October 8, 1998 low. The time span between the first low to the second low took over 5 weeks. The high on the VIX on the recent low of April 14 was 41.13. VIX readings near "30.00" and above appear near significant lows. Therefore we think the market has begun a basing period that may last several more weeks. Therefore we are longer term bullish. The short-term picture may set up another bottom near the April 14 low on the June Nasdaq and something higher for the June S&P's. On the recent decline the NDX went below the January 7 and 31 lows, which turns the bigger picture down on that index. The S&P did not break below a significant low and therefore is in a technically stronger position. Both indexes may line up for short term buy signals shortly. However we are only looking for a bounce in a sideways market. On the sidelines for the moment for the NDX and the S&P's. The XAU is still in a short term downtrend and that the final low may not show up tell June. We are long term bullish on the XAU. No new trades on the XAU yet. April 25. Ord Oracle.