Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (1697)	5/2/2000 11:03:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

It does take time, but if interest rates climb enough and consolidation ( big ones buying out the little ones ) and below their IPO prices..then they manage to cut expenses and how do they do that..well they don't need half of the employees of the ones they buy out..this stuff creeps in but remember I don't predict taht will happen, just taht there is a chance of it. One thing that's alarming me is the Bank sector..while it don't have to be a leader..it does have to be positive and it's really having a hard time. If you see any banks fail we are getting in deep kimshie. The second thing is the Insurance Sector..again it don't have to lead..but those two sectors are at the base of our type of capitalism.. so keep an eye on em. If they go the whole house of cards tumbles. Beyond all the earnings and loans we look at is also a huge market of derivatives all dependent on one another..to many for any one person to look at..most people think they are hedged off and to some extent they are..but beyond a 30% drop in the market and they start defaulting; when derivatives that look like a good hedge can't pay UP all shit breaks lose. BTW Japan went into a ression without high unemploymemnt, the realestate bubble failed first..then the banks started. --------- Take a look at this before getting too bullish quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=5ym lots of pension money is in that index.. Jim