Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (7916)	5/2/2000 10:57:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

<<I'm not claiming these charts have any predictive value >> With so much statistical info available now, one must exercise extreme caution in anyone claiming predictive value for any supposed correlative measure (i.e. anyone can now dig up statistics to support just about any theory). There is one 'old-time' measure which is readily available on a daily basis...and which the New York Times just happened to display in graph form this morning: the NYSE advance/decline line. While many folks may dismiss this gauge as far to broad to be meaningful, it is precisely this characteristic that may most tellingly show major shifts in market sentiment. The graph published in this morning's paper may be indicating just such a shift. The advance-decline line is displayed as being in a free-fall since last November (and I'm aware the drop started last summer). Surprisingly, a bottom appears to have been reached in mid-March. While another bottom was hit in mid-April, it was higher than the March one and we've seen a steep improvement in the last two weeks. Thus a double bottom with higher lows and a bias towards the upside. While it's obviously too early to say this is the beginning of rally with a strong foundation (a compressed version of this pattern occurred in December-January), a significantly improving A/D line suggests broad market participation on the upside. If nothing else, the pattern suggests a significant bottom may have been made and that munching in the debris field of biotechs may, alas, be prudent.

To: Biomaven who wrote (7916)	5/3/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: SnowShredder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Hi Peter, Interestingly, looking back to the biotech/drug peak on March 7, this appears to have lead the Nasdaq/Dow peak by about a week. So maybe the biotechs in the present environment are in fact some sort of leading indicator. In early March, the biotech sector had the momo, then Clinton/Blair, said their infamous genome speech and crashed the sector...with the generals (momo stocks) diving...the rest of the market followed (Later, Clinton said he didn't mean to crash the market for a couple of days...what about a couple months? >GG<). From what I've seen, the 1st to recover after a decline/crash are the stocks that had the juice before the dive...since that was the biotech... I agree with using the BTK as a leading indicator, in this environment.BWDIK? Best of Luck, Where'd He Go?