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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (2559)	5/2/2000 11:08:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Mike, In addition to your comments, I think people need to consider the market conditions and preservations of capital as well. I didn't sell any stock over 30, unfortunately, but I did sell some at 18 1/2 and in the 14s because of the way that the stock and market were acting. The reasons that I sold part of my position in this company have absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals of Gum Tech or my confidence in management. I was simply trying to avert what I thought could become a catastrophe if I didn't lighten up. As it turned out, I was able to buy much of my position back between 9 and 10, and I also added a little last week at 11 1/4. I have the utmost confidence in the fundamentals of this company and the management team. However, few stocks are immune to a collapse in the Nasdaq and Gum Tech is still in the process of proving itself to many investors. I have never said that this stock is without risk, but I think that the potential return makes the risk well worth taking. GUMM based all last summer, and I see no reason for the stock to continue its downtrend based on seasonal factors. In fact, the daily chart will give a buy signal if the stock closes above its 20 day moving average at 11 1/2. The weekly chart will turn up on a move through about 13 1/2. I think that there are many valid reasons to support a rally in the stock right now, including a favorable ruling in the temporary injunction hearing, nearing finalization on the Swedish Match joint venture, nearing completion of a large dental gum contract, a new allergy product being shipped, and the cold season being only a few months away with Zicam steadily increasing its market share last season. I believe that the firming in the Nasdaq also helps psychologically. I also believe that the high short interest is bullish when one considers the positive fundamental backdrop and what little volume can move this stock significantly in either direction. I don't think that shorts will get any more help from margin call selling and most of the remaining longs probably have higher targets than the teens. I just don't see much selling on the way up and shorts will be hard pressed to find enough size to cover their large short position without moving the stock up substantially.