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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (80322)	5/2/2000 11:38:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, allow me to add that the implication of this savings rate chart is pretty clear: the low in the savings rate coincided with an all time high in consumer confidence and bullishness on stocks as measured by the AAII poll. such trend extremes tend to get reversed, and sometimes dramatically (e.g. in '74). a reversal in the trend towards higher savings almost certainly will coincide with a sharp economic slowdown and a bear market...and since the trend in the savings rate has been so extreme, the counter trend phenomena are bound to become equally extreme. needless to say, i'm not a big believer in the 'new era'. i don't think economic cycles are really dead. i do believe that they may have become smoother due to technological enhancements...e.g. JIT inventory controls have more or less taken the inertia out of inventory cycles. however, the good old crack-up boom based on more and more credit is still very much in evidence. and as night follows day, a bust will follow the boom... regards, hb