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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80348)	5/2/2000 3:35:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

hb - [...what's not so obvious is how MU's stock can trade in the stratosphere with DRAM prices where they are now. there must be some perception in the market that a shortage is likely. i wonder though if that's just a story invented by the industry.] The future trajectory of DRAM pricing is probably 100X more unpredictable than trying to predict FED actions. 1. You have dozens of major DRAM customers and several major DRAM producers trying to bluff each other out over contract pricing with the eventual results easily causing factor of 2 or 3 differences +/- in market cap of the participants, with survival of some of the participants possibly in the balance. 2. Every participant faces a different environment. Some of the customers can swallow a wide range of DRAM pricing without a problem, while others need low pricing to hold any market share and survive. All of the producers differ in production cost, possibilities of alternate use of capacity, and positioning in the food chain for the delivery of new capacity, not to mention financial strength. Regards, Don