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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (49012)	5/2/2000 3:59:00 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

eicher I have been in the markets since 1978. I have been concerned about valuations since 1997, so my writing Mr. Kudlow with a very interesting post by Heinz was intended to get one of the countries most public bulls to respond in kind. Mid-cap stocks were very undervalued by mid 1998, so correct that has been where I have focused my energies. In 1997 I sold all of my large cap stocks taking the words from Joe Kennedy in 1928 stating "Only a fool holds out for the last dollar". Alan Greenspan caused me to redeploy my cash in the fall of 1998 with his three easings. I bought ten mid-cap technology and medical product stocks that amazingly went up 184% as a group from Nov. 1998 to Jan. 2000. I knew immediately then that we were in the final stages of a bubble so I sold all of them. Since those days I have been studying how the bubble will ultimately unfold which brings me to post here. The nasty correction in the NASD was in line with the 1929 sell-off. It is a precursor to future events. If you would take the time to study 1929 and 1930, and read the newspapers before and after the crash, people were remarkably complacent then as well. The sensationalism around the suicides by brokers on Black Tuesday only became coined years later as folks looked back in earnest to trace the steps of what went wrong. There was a tremendous rally in the dow from mid-November 1929 until the summer of 1930, retracing 50% of the losses. We are in a bubble and that is my conclusion from 22 years of studying markets. My reference to 1929 is only in a technical sense, the fundamentals around this bubble are different. As Heinz will point out, monetary policy is likely one major player and I have concluded that reckless stock compensation by corporations will continue to pressure declining market money flows as the richest 5% continue to unload the easy option and stock wealth accumulated in the 1990's. jmootx