To: long-gone who wrote (52252 ) 5/3/2000 6:08:00 PM From: Alex Respond to of 116790
Fair use...Think-tank warns of rising Asian tensions LONDON (Reuters) - A war of words between China and Taiwan and a border conflict between India and Pakistan have raised tensions in Asia despite U.S. efforts to calm the crises, a leading strategic think-tank said Thursday. The International Institute for Strategic Studies said the storm clouds over Taiwan and Kashmir contrasted with progress toward easing tension with North Korea and averting the risk of a military takeover in Indonesia. "The need for statesmanship has never been greater, for in both the Taiwan Straits and South Asia, the balance between conflict and peace can easily tip either way," it said. In its annual "Strategic Survey," the IISS said the 11-week conflict in Kashmir last year, the military coup in Pakistan and the hijacking of an Indian Airlines aircraft by Kashmiri militants had made the tensions raised by the 1998 exchange of nuclear tests between India and Pakistan even more dangerous. A visit to the area by President Clinton in March had failed to moderate the sense of crisis hanging over the region, it said. "The new century began with renewed concern for the stability of the region, as well as for the political and economic viability of Pakistan itself," the IISS said. CONSEQUENCES OF MISJUDGMENT DANGEROUS With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, "the consequences of misjudgment by either are more dangerous than ever," it added. The London-based institute said those Asian countries with democratic governments generally had weathered the 1997 Asian financial crisis better than those with authoritarian rulers. Thailand and the Philippines had bounced back under newly elected leaders, South Korea had begun to prosper again under a leader who had spent most of his life in opposition, and in Indonesia pressure for change had swept away veteran dictator Suharto and interim President B.J. Habibie. The IISS said elected President Abdurrahman Wahid had handled the key task of bringing the restive military under control with great finesse. "The success that Wahid has achieved in his slow and careful campaign to put the military back in the barracks needs to be followed up before Indonesia can be certain that its transition to electoral democracy has been completed. But the future looks far more optimistic in the first year of the new millennium than it did in the last year of the previous one," it said. CHINA BESET BY PROBLEMS The disparate problems that China encountered in 1999 did not challenge the Communist party's capacity to rule. But "each illustrated China's deep and continuing weaknesses and, collectively, they suggested a regime that was uneasy with the outside world and with its own society," the report said. A perceived domestic challenge from the Falun Gong sect, which led to it being outlawed, and threats to use force against Taiwan before the election of an opposition independence activist as Taiwanese president, both had international ramifications. It said the United States was being pulled inexorably and unwillingly into an inherently unstable process of Chinese unification, with the possibility of a sharp crisis in its relations with Beijing. The IISS said the South Korean and U.S. policy of gradually drawing North Korea into dialogue seemed to be working. "For North Korea too, things have begun to look up. ... In many ways, North Korea has become less threatening to its neighbors. Close engagement with the United States may help to reduce further its potential for aggression, although its fiery rhetoric will probably continue to exasperate those on the receiving end," the survey said. Copyright ¸2000 ABC News Internet Ventures. abcnews.go.com