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To: Percival 917 who wrote (17315)5/2/2000 10:27:00 PM
From: elpolvo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
joel- i went to NAB in vegas three weeks ago and came back with this report on RNWK:

polvie's take on RNWK from the NAB conference:

1)real was all over the place. every vender there had mention of how their stuff was in someway tied to or compatible or partnered with realmedia. streaming media, video, audio, data, was a pure given for the media and information delivery of the present and future.

2)msft had a pretty big presence. $$$$ talks.
it's not as big, as good, or as ubiquitous BUT...
this is a biggie... msft windows media is already in the box, group users love it (corporations and instituitions) they're standardizing on msft office, windows, browser, etc. it's easier to deal with one source (it's not really easier, considering the source, but it has the appearance of being easier)

3)the war is still on in full!! msft and real don't want to license each others streaming media formats. the war is so personal that i was almost accousted at real for wearing a msft freebie t-shirt (i made them give me a real shirt and i put it on over the other one)

from an investor standpoint i don't like that war - msft is a hard one to beat. msft IS making inroads and has the advantage of familiarity and presence (of the WMP) in the operating system and browser. it's going to still be a rocky road for a couple years. up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down.

4)because of the pervasiveness of acceptance, and partnerships in the industry, of realnetworks' products and service -- i'm sure they'll continue to be a success. it could turn out that they're a smaller success than we hope for as investors.

i'd buy 'em at today's prices and hold 'em for five years and expect to make a good return - i don't know about making a killing on them though - the clear easy road for a better return is qcom.

all of this is purely IMHO

love,

-polvie


since then things have gotten tougher for mr. softie as far as smothering RealNetworks (at least in investor's eyes) so i'm 10% more optimistic than i was 3 weeks ago when i wrote the above. ALSO -- Real's annual streaming media conference is coming up later this month and it's always a time for announcements of gobs of NEW products (i hear there's a new version of realjukebox that's awesome) and NEW alliances/deals.

(how'm i doing on the cheerleading shester? didja catch the use of the word awesome?)

disclaimer: i hold no present positions in RNWK but some of my bestest friends do. they (RealNetworks) DID give me free STUFF in vegas AND i picked them in the porch doubles contest along wif she (thanks for sharing, shester)

love,

polvie

ps joel- i'm going to send you some ideas about our golf tournament in atlanta - if you like them you can modify as needed and present them to the participants. if you don't like them...
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you can bite my big toe dude. <kidding. i don't like biters>



To: Percival 917 who wrote (17315)5/3/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: sueinphilly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
I think that MSFT is playing catchup. how many free servers can you give away? The best thing that could ever happen to RNWK imo is if Msft is forced to have earnings on it's streaming media business instead of using it as a loss leader. I think RNWK will be having some announcements come the end of the month (at their conference in San Jose 5/22-5/26). At least that's what the angels tell me. Also did you all see this biz.yahoo.com

Here's a great post done by someone on the Motley fool board detailing RNWKs earnings history

boards.fool.com

These might also be of interest
Rob's original post with derivation:
boards.fool.com

Further explanation when Rob answered the identical question:
boards.fool.com

I think we're in good shape at least thru May, but of course if market conditions go down the tube..... I think the upside is less limited than the downside at this point.

Susan