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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el paradisio who wrote (49184)	5/3/2000 12:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

el p, i'm only optimistic with regards to their upcoming quarterly report. they're going to beat estimates by 1 cent as usual. they're taking over 20-30 companies a year to buy in research, and to be able to massage their earnings reports, an art they have more or less perfected. i am NOT sanguine about the stock...it's by far the most overvalued big cap stock there is. the valuation is simply totally at odds with any discounting model that's even remotely grounded in reality. it has 7 billion shares outstanding...that's a lot of potential selling pressure should it ever disappoint...even if it only tries to guide expectations lower, that would be all it takes imo. of course it's also a major holding of many of the big fund companies, e.g. Janus has gobs of CSCO stock in virtually every single fund it offers. so there's always a lot of tape painting and manipulation in that stock, as it is so important for making these funds look good. all that said, i do not doubt for a minute that it's an excellent company with an excellent record of execution. but that doesn't change my view that it's wildly overvalued. yes, it deserves a high p/e. but not 200.... regards, hb

To: el paradisio who wrote (49184)	5/3/2000 5:26:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

el paradisio: "Heinz,I have less optimistic view towards CSCO. 1.Current valuation 2.I expect them to deliver as expected 3.It will be difficult to sustain that future growth, JNPR routers are "hot " now and CSCO's "brain" is in JNPR WCOM is one of a bigger customer and I was warned by friends long time ago about CSCO 4.CSCO can be the next on the list after the MSFT Regards, el paradisio" But those are fundamental reasons <g>. Maybe someday Crisco's price will again be based on such archaic "matrices" :-) Well, I see 2 of my 15 ish replacement limits for the mo stocks sold yesterday and Monday were rebought today in my absence. Perhaps numbers will be crappy enough to finish loading up. Heck, I missed a 1/2 dozen of em by $1 :-(