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Strategies & Market Trends : TATRADER GIZZARD STUDY--Stocks 12.00 or Less..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock talk who wrote (16417)	5/3/2000 9:37:00 PM
From: MrBuzz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 59879

I would expect this market to be heading slowly down in a descending trend for the next few months. Choppy markets at best - gonna buy a neck brace. Its a swingers market now. I expect to see the Dow in 10200 land this week and Nasdaq 3600. This month sideways, and bias down a few hundred more points. Long term wise, Dow 10800 and Nasdaq 3800 are the key to the sustaining 10 year bull run. 1000 points each way is the swing range for the intermediate haul (i.e 9800, 11800; 2800, 4800). Notice where we are now - pretty much smack in the middle of those ranges so psychological effects are now coming into play with bias being weak. Current focus is on this month's FOMC. I'm bias short for the short term trades but still remain a bull for the long haul (although a more cautious bull). Anything that looks overvalued deserves a short - so yes, fundamentals do apply now more than ever. Good short candidates are companies with lots of long term debt, making little or no profit, decreased revenue/earnings stream with bad cash flow, high P/E's. If you are in longs already with considerable gains, just hold - no use giving your capital gains back to Uncle Sam. Sell off your weak stocks first and hold the strong ones that meet sound fundamental criteria and chart patterns, in my opinion. Scaling into position trades SLOWLY on the best stocks and just let things happen. That is, don't go out and plunk down the entire wad at one price on one stock - not until a clear trend is established. Preserve capital for the next big run! During a breakout of a bear cycle, the strongest stocks pop up the hardest with those being the strongest fundamentally. Sharpen the #2 pencil and start crunching numbers - charts don't always say it all unfortunately in a bear cycle as crap still flows downstream. Know which strong ones exist, then move the funds to 2nd and finally 3rd tier as the run starts trending again. That is, know a stock, its sector, and the strongest 2nd and 3rd tier companies in that sector. Seek value first and do the homework - you'll bound to do well if you take the time. Short termwise, we aren't done with earnings yet and Cisco is still yet to declare (the end of earnings cycle). So far we have seen the "sell on the earnings" pattern coming more and more into play. That should tell you that the market knows its overheated - just dont get stuck holding someone else's overvalued bag of goods. CNBC talking head analysts will try to convince you "things are great" - my suggestion is to just turn off the tv and do yoga on the time and sales. Most of these Internet stocks, for example, are getting punished as liquidity dries up as they fall out of favor with retail. Let alone, they make no profit (geez, how can you give something away for free and not make money - the Internet freebie model sucks). There are just far too many issues out in the markets for investors to stay long on without "falling out of favor" and getting jerked around by quick hit daytraders. Any sort of lame news on fundamentally weak stocks deserves a beating on the head. You'll notice as of late many companies being kept afloat with larger companies taking vested interest. I'd expect more of this to happen as subscribership issues come into play (i.e. we want your customers). In addition, daytraders may attempt to keep fundamentally weak stocks up with short squeezes in the near term, but in the long run, that's opportunity to bang it on the head (like EFAX, ETYS, PPOD, BFRE, NZRO, etc.). The charts will continue to look like agonizing long drawn out descending triangles sucking whatever dumb money goes flowing into it, similar to Netscape before it got it's life back from AOL. That is, they need to be bought out to have any chance of survival. Keep that in mind and watch the short interest sheets carefully (in investor business daily, or barron's). Tip: Swingers should look at EBAY for well defined trading ranges. $120 buys to go long and $175 sells short are the current pattern. Keep your stops tight (say 10% and you won't get hurt. Good trading all, MrBuzz whats-the-buzz.com P.S. My hunch is that the Nasdaq will look like eBay's chart from 5/99 to 8/99 (difficult to discern bottom), then sideways movement.

To: stock talk who wrote (16417)	5/4/2000 1:32:00 AM
From: SnowShredder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 59879

Hi Frank, Like I said I really think in 6 months we'll look back and ask ourselves were prices really this low back in May and why didn't I load up?? I agree...(but I havent' been around for a bear market yet?)...today I got whipped raw >gg<, I'm going to try and cut back on my intraday trades. FWIW...I talked to a friend of mine @ Dean Witter yesterday & he is buying back his clients positions slowly...he was saying if a company is fundamentally strong...then it should be a "good buy" now? Bought back RMBS @ the close. Best of Luck, Where'd He Go?