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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (30977)	5/3/2000 7:01:00 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

Heinz, what's your take on physical gold right now? Does it tend to move before or after the gold stocks as we descend into the inflationary abyss? I know the stocks provide more leverage, but I'm thinking that if things really go downhill, nothing would beat the yeller dog himself.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (30977)	5/3/2000 7:40:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 42523

... if reading chicken entrails proves to produce tangible RESULTS ... I'm not too obsessed with finding empirical data to back up what we already know works, but here is something for those who are: NBER WORKING PAPER BIBLIOGRAPHIC ENTRY Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation Andrew W. Lo, Harry Mamaysky, Jiang Wang NBER Working Paper No. W7613 Issued in March 2000 ---- Abstract ----- Technical analysis, also known as charting,' has been part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness to technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms we find that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value. This paper is available in PDF (2732 K) format. papers.nber.org