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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (102740)	5/3/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Glenn: It seems that there are some people who believe that the days of heavy losses at AMZN are nearing an end -- that the burn rate will slow dramatically, and that this stock is a screaming buy! As somebody I respect on this topic, I turn to you for insight -- are they rolling their own at the brokerages or is AMZN about to light up the sky? GST, The bulls on AMZN will disagree with me but based on the recent report, I see an even to escalating burn rate. I definity cannot find a drop in burn from Q1 2000 going forward. Actually, most of the analysts that have re-iterated buys have increased losses in their projections. One argument is the need to market is reduced due to the failing of man of the recent (last three years) start-up dotcoms. I see the competion changing to the brick and mortar known brands which have bided their time until on-line shopping became more mainstream. I would expect a blitz of marketing and better site production from the "old economy" retails this coming holiday season. I also expect excellent fulfillment from these firms as they learned from the errors of Toy r Us, etc. There are a lot of unknowns that no one seems to mention lately. I listen to all the conference calls and one of Bezos main points has been that Amazon wants to maintain control of fulfillment so they can provided the best shopping experience anywhere. Clearly, they skipped this part with the Zshops but the buyer likely is aware of that. The recent additions such as the garden shop with lawnmowers, etc. would quite an inventorying undertaking if Amazon is controlling fulfillent. This could be cause of large merchandise mark-downs at season end. The problem is I do not have a clue if these type items are being dropped shipped from the factory which does take fulfillment out of Amazon's control. This is just one of many new areas. Amazon shifted the spin to profitability when the market started to kill the stock price due to increased losses. However, the debt/leases on the distribution centers continue and any additional inventorying will increase cash burn in a real hurry. Maybe they gave up on the great shopping experience since that was hardly mentioned if mentioned at all during the last conference call. Do you or does anyone know if all these new product lines are being "handled" by Amazon directly? Glenn