ole 49r, you wrote..Spiral3...maybe we can look forward to you helping me here??
sure, but first, you have to tell me.....how many of you are there? <g>
.. if there is like a "minimum square footage facility" in mind by those designing and cranking out these 'LonWorks' installs?....
The number "64 nodes" sticks in my mind from a recent discussion on this thread. Can anyone make an association to "size" being targeted" by those "selling LonWorks systems," even if it IS in Europe and to the home automation market "over there?"
Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not privy to, and am unaware of the network size being targeted by the many different companies selling LonWorks systems. I'd imagine different sized Integrators target different sized implementations. LonWorks is a very flexible and scaleable system.
A control network may have 3 nodes, or 300, or 30,000, or more and can range in complexity from a few ?smart? light switches on a timer to a jet passenger airplane (both of which are examples of existing LONWORKS networks). echelon.com
Elon's CFO has stated quite clearly, as noted about a dozen or so posts back, that a prerequisite for the home networking market to achieve mass market adoption is the emergence of a catalyst, and he pointed to Service Providers being the most likely source of this. I listened in on the chat and can verify the accuracy of the post as to the CFO's words. I've followed the company for some time and management has never suggested that control networks in the home market were in the mass adoption phase. In light of this, wrt the home mkt I believe your characterization cranking out these 'LonWorks' installs is flawed. Where I come from "cranking out" would imply a high/ fast rate of adoption and this is currently not the case in the home mkt. Assuming you read the thread, surely the CFO's guidance would have made this clear.
re: where to go for a "nearby" residential installation?... not sure I understand your question...do you mean where would one go to see one or where would one go to get one....again I find the choice of your words a little strange when it's been made quite clear by the CFO that the home market has not yet begun to approach mass market adoption. The word "nearby" would imply that you understand the implementation to be ubiquitous...where do you get this idea ?
In any event if you're in the SF area ....these guys are in Silicon Valley...I'm sure they'll oblige on both counts. This actually came out a few hours after your post. In case you didn't see it...here it is.
Remote Home Control Package NEW!
Configure and implement a secure remote home control system that allows a homeowner to control lighting, HVAC, or even a Hot Tub from any browser anywhere in the world. $500 - $5,000 (depends on complexity and number of control devices) cybermanor.com./Services/services.html
I would imagine that as adoption becomes more widespread, the hardware portion of these costs will decrease, just as the cost of the Neuron Chip has decreased over time.
Despite suggestions made to the contrary on this thread,the fact is that LonWorks enables substantial savings, meaning that one's initial costs would easily be recouped over the product's life-cycle. Granted the following examples are commercial applications, but, imo, the same principles would apply to the home mkt, especially since Utilities have been suggested as one possible catalyst in this sector.
Echelon's LNS Technology Energizes Philips' High-Performance Lighting Control System
Recognizing the important role efficient lighting can play in reducing operating expenses, Philips Lighting, the largest lighting company in the world, turned to Echelon's LonWorks© Network Services (LNS) operating system for its HELIO lighting control application. The result is an easy-to-use system that dramatically increases energy efficiency, slashes annual energy expenditures by up to 50 percent, and saves thousands of dollars per year in system operating and maintenance expenses. echelon.com
With respect to the recent anecdotal evidence supplied by Ratan Lal, and used by yourself as a springboard for further questions....Let me see on the one hand we have five new houses being built that we know aren't using Control Networks, and an architect, and a builder who've never heard of Echelon and who aren't interested in home automation. WOW!...I guess the CFO must be right....no mass market yet, but in case this critical evidence may make you wonder if this home networking stuff is ever going to materialize, you may want to consider that the move towards home networking/ automation goes way beyond the realms of Echelon Corporation.
Here's a small starter list that shows the work being done by some companies /organizations in this sector:
Cisco: cisco.com Intel: developer.intel.com upnp.org Sun: sun.com GTE Corporation : gte.com
ASHRAE ashrae.org HAVi havi.org Home API homeapi.org HomePNA homepna.org HomeRF homerf.org Jini sun.com homeautomation.org gohomesystems.com automatedbuildings.com cedia.org andovercontrols.com content.honeywell.com johnsoncontrols.com lucent.com trane.com etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc
And from the world of appliances...here's a few snippets from the latest online issue of Appliance Magazine.http://www.appliancemagazine.com/mm/indup/
GE Happenings: March 13, 2000. General Electric Co. (GE) will invest more than $1 billion over 4 years to develop and market new products, states AHAM's Global Appliance Report. It is now testing prototypes of Internet-ready appliances for consumer acceptance.
Matsushita Forms Panel to Coordinate Appliance Innovations: March 11, 2000. Matsushita Electric Industrial Company (MEIC) is forming a panel ofgroup companies to coordinate its development of major appliance innovations, according to AHAM's Global Appliance Report. The group will address areas such as networking appliances, automatic gas meter readers, new energy sources, and home medical or nursing care services. MEIC will invest in a new line to increase production of dishwasher/dryers to 300,000 units this fiscal year.
Sunbeam Joins Microsoft in Universal Plug and Play Forum: March 23, 2000. Sunbeam Corporation (Boca Raton, FL) and its Thalia Products division joined Microsoft Corporation's Universal Plug and Play (UPnP) Forum, furthering the companies' shared objective of establishing industry-leading standards for home appliance networking. Membership by Sunbeam and Thalia in the UPnP Forum supports its commitment to make its new line of HLT"! appliances talk with other smart appliances and electrical devices throughout the home in an open, simple, and reliable manner.
Kitchen Bath Industry Show Report: April 9, 2000. The commodity appliance is a dying breed. Acres of evidence were exhibited April 7-9, 2000, at the Kitchen/Bath Industry Show. This was arguably the most sophisticated line-up of high-end appliances ever exhibited for North America, with an emphasis on sophisticated styling and extended levels of control.
Maytag and Ford Build Van Together: April 7, 2000 (AP) Maytag Corporation and Ford Motor Company have built a concept minivan together. ....The Windstar includes a computer to link to house appliances of the future - a driver might use it to see how much milk is in the refrigerator at home before a stop at the supermarket.
Consider that a decade ago hardly anyone in the general population had a computer at home, let alone used one to communicate on a daily basis...email, internet, b2c, b2b...unheard of... The home network mkts are immature, but are gathering steam as evidenced by the work being done by many companies on Residential Gateways. Imo, as the worlds renewable resources become increasingly scarce, as consumers increasingly demand lifestyle conveniences, as the www proliferates and as intelligent devices replace dumb ones, "control networks" in home markets, are an inevitability. When these markets "tornado" Elon should be able to parlay their reputation for functionality, price,quality and reliability, into being a major beneficiary of this trend.
Bear in mind that for now the overwhelming majority of Echelon's current revenues and their forward looking guidance are based on the commercial & industrial sectors. As Robert Metcalfe, the founder of 3Com Corporation, once said, "The power of a network is proportional to the number of nodes on it." Given that there are vastly more nodes performing control than data functions (LANs), it's clear that the most powerful networks in existence are control networks. http://www.echelon.com/Products/Core/faq.htm
You'll probably disagree, but imho the tone of your recent posts seems to be quite sarcastic, almost cynical......if you are not impressed or are skeptical why don't you just state your case plainly and clearly or simply move on to something that you perceive to be a more attractive investment. When Elon was in the forties you called for it to go into the twenties. It moved into the hundreds first, you could have made a bundle on a trade, but you called it wrong...(perhaps I should have sold some, never did)...only then did it retrace to your target price in the twenties. You've been on this board for some time now, and as far as I'm aware from what you've posted, you don't own the stock. Since you neither bought when your target was reached, nor, from what I can gather, when it went below your target... an honest question - at this point, what's in it for you.
It's Sunday morning....a beautiful day...I'll be offline and will catch up later. |
