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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65684)	5/4/2000 10:28:00 AM
From: MetalTrader	Respond to of 95453

agreed one only needs to look at the demise of several of the best investment minds of the recent past to admit things are not what they were. if these managers who were dealing with very sophisticated risk models, found that the previous econometrics no longer worked, I think we can all sit up and take heed. the rational science either no longer works (which means in irrational one has taken its place) or the rationale has not yet been quantified. in either case market predictability decreases significantly. in those lines, like others here, I am never too far from cash in these days. mt

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65684)	5/4/2000 10:47:00 AM
From: Telemarker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

In respect to the ongoing discussion of general market direction, over the last couple of years I've found myself to just miserable at forecasting the direction of the general market. Decisions that I've made by giving much weight to the overall market have not been good ones. I do much better by focusing on sector fundamentals as well as those of the companies in which I've chosen to invest. I will consider price action of an individual security, especially when trying to gain a favorable entry point. At this point, I am far from concerned with the present price action in the E&P's as a whole. I am troubled by what I see going on with the mini-majors, some of which I have been selling - see below. Any comments on these judgements? However, one thing that I do find myself doing is favoring smallcap companies which may not be a source of liquidity in an ugly market. This somewhat reflects my negative view of the overall "market" (TNT's, big cap growth - all the old favorites). Of course, this is a two-edged sword as the larger E&P's stand to be the first to attract capital when it flows into the sector. Don't own any OS stocks, yet. I need to see the lofty expectations start to be realized first. If I'm too late, that's OK as I've made good money buying beaten-down E+P's when I KNEW they WERE PRESENTLY generating substantial profits. I'm greatly looking forward to a marketplace in which the participants think, and do so for themselves. I believe that to be the type of market where my background gives me an edge. Like the "good old days" <g>. BTW JQP, I remember the same type of risk management talk coming from Greenspan in a talk several weeks ago, several weeks ago at a banking industry group meeting in NY (? - anyone remember). It was not well received by the equities market at that time. Cheers!