Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31688)	5/4/2000 6:59:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Hi Tom. Yeah all my trades were lousy under that name, figured I needed a change. I have a lot of views on what may happen but am clueless as to what the markets will do. 1) I still don't think AG will raise more than .25 @ the next meeting. I base this on his comments to Congress where he indicated the FED can be gradual. I don't think this weeks #'s change the inflation outlook (by that I mean they are trailing indicators and this could be seen two months ago when he gave his report (althoug the media didn't see it). 2) Remember my thinking is worth SQUAT. 3) A more likely scenario is he raises .25 now and continues at this pace. FED has been know to over tighten in the past and if he raises .5 now and again in June it could be too much. He may remember 1987. The .25 approach still gives him the luxury to slow growth and torture the equity markets without a crash. 4) Remember my thinking is worth SQUAT. 5) I'm concerned on the semi equipment makers. The market right now is going great and even if the orders plateau (not peak yet) they should have growing earnings. My concern is the SEC accounting change requiring them to book the revenues when the equipment is accepted vs. shipped. Its too be implemented this quarter. 6) Remember my concern is worth SQUAT. 7) I think were in a trading range but we won't break to the 2,900 level unless the FED raises .5. Imagine if people realize the FED is really concerned with inflation and then the'll be worrying about another .5 in June. A .5 raise in May will shock the markets more than people think. I've read the markets are expecting a .5 SWDIK. 7) Remember my thinking is worth SQUAT. 8) Still plenty of liquidity so I think we are forming a base after some pretty severe damage (DOW down 9%, S&P down 9%, NAZ down 10% for the year with the NAZ having been up 35%). People anticipate a rally with elections. Why should the techs rally this summer? Europeans are still going to take their 4 week summer vacations. 9) Remember my thinking is worth SQUAT. 10) Even CSCO seems rich at these levels. Not trying to be sacreligous here T, JMO. If CSCO disappoints with revenue or earnings we are in for a severe correction. I don't expect this since SUNW and NN have had good reports but anything is possible. 11) Remember my thinking is worth SQUAT. 12) I think the BP's reflect co's bouncing back after being trashed. Except for MSFT we have not seen one of the Generals taken down and shot (QCOM doesn't fall into this since it ran up on that analyst 1,000 comment). 13) I think the NAZ chart and the market shows the fear plus many traders have seen a significant portion of thier capital disappear. 14) I think the employment report will be good (i.e. high employment again. The economy is still booming) so we may sell off. I'd think the market has factored in a good # with all the reports lately. No the SQUAT comment is not a SI thing. We have to sift thru the FUD and my thinking is just that (although worth some small piece of value). Trailing indicators are better than no indicators but the NYSEBP did go positive b/4 the NAZ crash. As tech investors we can not rely on this all the time. Of course as long as its good 90% of the time we should be happy. How'd you cut and paste Jackson into your profile (Adobe photo?, I have some pic's go grace but I'll have to figure that one out. Tim