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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (13625)	5/4/2000 8:12:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Jack: Re: "If, as you say, a 50 basis point move has been accepted as a given by the markets, how do you think the market will respond to a 25 basis point move. Up or down, and why?" Whatever the Fed. decides to do in terms of basis points, the market is all but braced for a 50 basis point move. It is acting really scared. Memories of April 14th? You betcha. VIX, P/C all up and the silly rumors of an intra meeting hike are icing on the cake. Good grief, the market is begging for a 50 basis point move and it wants the move yesterday. It wants to get it over with so bad it hurts. Please, please Dr. Greenie, give us the medicine now. Pull the band aid off quickly, Dr. Greenie, and then go away. LOL. I think the less interest rate sensitive sectors of the market will rally regardless of the basis point amount unless the economic data points to a strong probability of a series of larger rate hikes for the forseeable future. That may well be the case to develop later but it may be too early to reach that conclusion from a couple of data points. Markets will go south if the data is bad and Greenie only pulls a 25 basis point hike out of the hat. IMO, this has a near zero probabliity of happening.