To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (12158 ) 5/4/2000 9:41:00 PM From: A.L. Reagan Respond to of 29987
When BLS says he doesn't know minutes "sold" I'm pretty sure he means "paid for by an external customer." I have to believe Globalstar knows exactly how many discrete phones are activated for use at any moment and how many minutes of use each phone consumes. What it may not know readily is how much of that usage is test calls by the SP, demonstration calls for prospective users, etc. Well, that sounds like the honor system with the SP's, assuming that tests and demos = $0 for G*. BLS did make the comment that the SP's were given a certain amount of free minutes for these purposes. I guess I still don't quite comprehend the revenue cycle or controls thereover. It would seem at a bare minimum G* would know: (a) how many minutes have been used by each SP; (b) how many free minutes have been allocated to each SP for testing, promo, etc. One would think that G* would give x minutes free to each SP per gateway for testing and then additional free minutes based on # of phones ordered for demos, etc. So, if computed on a SP by SP (or gateway by gateway) basis, G* could disclose monthly and cumulative MOU's and free minutes alloted. Part of the self-inflicted wound here with continued BLS waffles on anything quantitative is that a reasonable person could conclude that: 1. The actual MOU's suck big time and there's not even a satisfactory uptake rate; and/or 2. G*'s accounting, control, and information systems are horribly deficient - they are clueless as to what is going on in the business and their only data is anectodal. It would be fine if BLS stated that they do not know exactly how many third-party paying subscribers there are right to the moment, and that the numbers of activations were not accurate due to tests, demos, etc. But they really ought to know (down to the day if necessary) the MOU's and (within a week if additional free MOU's are based on handset orders as they should be) how many of the MOU's are billable. I think the analyst and investor community would be placated with that for now plus the anecdotal evidence proffered of early average user MOU's. The April system-wide MOU's he did give of 114,000 seemed really, really low - like an error when constrasted with the upbeat shuck and jive act. I'm sorry to be so negative, but every time I listen to BLS I think how these guys are absolutely screwing up what could be a great business - how brilliant they were to design and implement this technological and cost-effective wonder, and how incredibly inept they are at the nuts and bolts of marketing and operating the business. I'm not taking anything for granted with this outfit, including whether they are capable of basic billing and collecting. Earnings release on Monday should be a hoot and another party day for the shorts.