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To: Skycat who wrote (13506)5/7/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: ajs  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19297
 
Nice reading:

investmentopportunity.com

Market Comment


It's been another completely lackluster week of trading in small and microcap stocks. Volume has dried up dramatically, and there is virtually no interest.

The entire financial community is frozen by perceived fears of rising interest rates, inflation, and the recent two month bear market. One week from next Wednesday the Fed will meet and raise interest rates. The market, based on whether we get a 1/4 point of 1/2 point interest rate increase, will respond. How the market will respond is anybody's guess.

Until the market believes that interest rates have peaked we will continue to be range bound and there will be minimal interest in stocks. There will be small pockets of volatility, but on the whole it will be pretty boring.

The big question is: How much longer will this malaise last? We don't know, but we can go back in recent history to our own publication and try to come up with some reasonable expectations. Here is an excerpt from a newsletter that we published back on September 16, 1999:

This market is very listless. For the most part, large cap stocks are selling off. Small caps are barely trading, and they shouldn't even bother to open the market for micro caps. As one analyst put it so accurately: "Volume is as thin as Ally McBeal".
It feels as if everybody that is going to sell has sold, and the rest of us are waiting for a catalyst to get us excited enough to start buying again. With another interest rate hike likely in October, it is difficult to find reasons to believe that stocks are going higher in the short term. This is one of the reasons that it is so important to have a one to two year investment horizon in the micro cap companies we profile. You cannot predict when Companies will make exciting progress, or when market conditions will provide you with an enhanced exit point in a stock.

Long term investors should be adding positions in their favorite micro caps at today's levels. It is almost impossible to predict the absolute bottom and the absolute top. If you just try to take 80% out of the middle you will consistently produce outstanding returns. The great Sir John Templeton, one of the early architects of the Mutual Fund industry, said "I always made the most money when I bought at the point of Maximum Pessimism".

September 16, 1999



Today's market feels exactly like it did back in September. At that time the NASDAQ was at about 2800. The NASDAQ remained range bound between 2750 and 2900 for another six weeks, and then the market ripped up 66% to 5000 in four months. Many small and micro cap stocks dramatically out performed the NASDAQ, yielding doubles and triples for investors in a relatively short time.