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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (65717)	5/5/2000 12:06:00 AM
From: Wowzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Good post, so what are your favorite laggards? Thanks,

To: upanddown who wrote (65717)	5/5/2000 8:55:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John, what surprises me the most about the fab story is that most of the leases sold in the last GOM auction where to independants and for shallow water blocks. That spells jackups, which in turn spells jackets, platforms, refit, refurb, conversions, and pipeline tie ins, etc and so forth. All that stuff is bread n butter to the fabs. I've been listening to a lot of the con calls of the drillers and all say that the jackup market is tight tight tight in the GOM. Tightness in the GOM jackup market and the GOM lease sales should have given investors clear indication of what is to come in the next year and a half. Deep water is not necessary for these guys to really start building good backlog in the next two quarters. Ok so the GLBL's and HOFF's of the world aren't going to be laying new pipe unless there are new production facilities, right? They won't make much money if there aren't new production facilities to install. Sooo they've already got to be built to be installed. No fabs no offshore construction. So why bid them up and not fabs too. Competition? It does not make sense to me to have a jacket built in Korea and hauled all the way across the pacific to be installed in the GOM does it? I would think that the US fabs have a lock on that market. Investors seem to be overly concerned about management styles and seem to totally discount the business these companies will be receiving in the very near future. Sure, dayrates for deep water drillships are huge and so deep water rigs should start recieving some kind of premium here, but still FGH and UFAB at 6 for this period of the cycle? I think investors are caught in a time warp here. One possible explanation is that drillers are putting everything off until their rigs start to fail inspections and dayrates go up. But the E&P independents can't afford to just let the well sit. They need to bring these wells into production ASAP, to capture the high prices. I guess the only thing that will really drive these stocks is orders. But I have a feeling those orders will come in a flood, and you will already have had to been in them to get make the easy money. BWDIK.

To: upanddown who wrote (65717)	5/5/2000 2:12:00 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 95453

John, I agree on the big divergence. This morning I sold my July 20 EOG calls and August 12 1/2 XTO calls (which I bought in January) for a bunch of August FGH 10 calls. Rig utilization is really improving, GOM is getting hot, E&P cash flow growing as NG and oil prices continue to rise. Fab orders will be coming in soon - at least before August. Even though the FGH management isn't the best (to put it nicely) a rising tide lifts all ships (little pun there) and this divergence will surely close! Still have my FLC, UPR and PXD calls and just sold my May OEI calls last Friday (too early as usual). Boom 2000 is here with a vengeance - who needs tech!!!