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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/5/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Good morning everyone- Thanks to our resident film maker for that right brained analysis. I'm surprised a left brain thinking arteest such as yourself is so multi talented. :-) Boy things sure were screwed up last night with SI. Actually, with computers in general. Must have been the LUV BUG. I was getting logged off other sites, and all sorts of shenanigans. I'm just getting back in, I gather from the futures that the numbers must have been only slightly bad.

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/5/2000 9:40:00 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 63513

Interesting way to calculate the market risk...

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/5/2000 10:08:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 63513

Great Post Alan, thanks for that. Marty Zweig of course has the famous quote Don't fight the FED....ironically when he was on Wall Street week in late Feb. He was not that concerned about the rising rate environment, he said rising rates don't seem to be affecting the Hi tach stocks -g-........

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/5/2000 4:55:00 PM
From: Craig Gordon	Respond to of 63513

I used to have a great respect for Marty Zwieg's ideas, but for the past several years they haven't held up well. Marty's a good guy but nothing works forever. His system is out of touch with the times and the current reality. It may have to do with the delay in timing the move versus the effect of the move by the fed. Do you want to miss the next bull run because Marty has a score of -3?

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/7/2000 12:12:00 AM
From: Gary Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Marty Zweig has been a leading fed watcher..... I have an old book called "You can profit from a Monetary Crisis." It was great back in the 70's. Author predicted the rise in gold from $35 to 900 per ounce. Point is that times change, books and theories go out of style. I used to subscribe to his Zweig's "Investor Letter." At one time he managed a mutual fund based on his trading theories. The "Letter" and hotline got better reviews than his mutual fund that practiced what he preached. The fund never did very well when I watched it. The problem with applying Marty's analysis is that the world has changed. The amount of money flowing into and out of the markets really dampens Marty's indicators. The economy is more global and has allowed rapid growth with minimal inflation in the US and in many foreign countries. At one time, a fed move to raise rates who have killed the bull. Today is a different story. Just look at last Friday's report. The pros bet that the market would be taken down. Didn't happen, instead we got a rally. 401k money is a huge factor. There's lots of money in mutual funds looking for a home. That's pumping up the bubble. Historically, it's taken months for higher rates to impact the economy and eventually the stock market. Eventually, investors will be lured from the Stock market to "safer" and higher yields in the money market or CD's. The fed is in a tough spot right now, IMO. The markets continue to foster the "wealth effect" mentality of the fed. The herd has yet to crack under all the interest rate increase pressure. I think it will take much longer for this market to crack under the weight of higher rates. In the mean time we'll see the massive fluctuations. A traders market is intact. Personally, I'll go on record and say that the March highs at the NASDQ and the NYSE won't be seen for at least 18 months. The fed knows that there is too much speculation in the markets. The March valuations were ridiculous. The problem facing the fed is the construction of a "soft landing." Greenspan is the master, so it's tough to bet against him and all that 401k money. Just my 2 cents. gw

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (31817)	5/7/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: A. Wayne	Respond to of 63513

Alan, I was a Marty Zweig follower for many years during the 80's, have several of his books and took his investment newsletter. The concern with Marty's Fed Indicator is that it comes from a book copyrighted in 1986. The stock market and economy has changed dramatically since then. I haven't followed Marty for some years and would be interested in knowing if his views and analysis of the Fed are still the same. Do you or anyone else know if his current analysis of the Fed rate hikes as related to the market are the same as they were in 1986? Wayne