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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (17671)	5/5/2000 8:19:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

UncFranq, here is a quick reply to precede a more careful one later first, I dont know where he gets The put/call ratio is near a 5 year low the OEX Put/Call ratio is now 1.18 (OEX is S&P100, with P/C ratio a contrary indicator) anything over 0.6 is high, indicative of bullish (options are most often held on the call side, not put side) supporting evidence is the VIX at 30.4 now anything over 25 is high, indicative of bullish (the VIX relates to option put premium, and is another contrary indicator) the NazComp "negative flag pattern" is on my watch also what is displayed now resembles a new positive upchannel initially where a new shorterm trend is being established with slightly higher highs, and slightly higher lows as we proceed unfortunately, if a steeper decline is coming nearterm, then it would show itself in the same way as a "pausing pattern" that is why I said a couple days ago that the Federal Reserve had better be damned careful now since the major indexes are at a CRITICAL JUNCTURE if they screw up, down we go current valuations among tech stocks likely cannot hold up to the heavier pressure of much higher interest rates I hate to hang hope on such a looneytune phenomenon as the upcoming November Elections but wouldnt it be the ultimate fishbowl of failure for the Fed to overreact in megalomaniac tight-gripped control right now and execute on successive ill-advised 50 basis point rate hikes ??? another tepid NazComp rally and we come up against the 30day and 50day Moving Averages they await us at 4000 and 4100 roughly last time we hit such MA's, we fell apart in early April this time though, we have built a somewhat stronger recovery base (it still is not a strong base, not enough time, not enough volume) this could get dicey I intend to examine a plan to freeze my account with covered calls and long puts more later, and thanks for the compliment of referring to me I will check the Market Direction thread with LG this weekend those guys tend to be bearish, but they are sharp another concern of mine is the plethora of tech stocks that show the same ominous pattern they are each at the critical juncture also e.g. Cisco, QCOM, JDSU, et al they came down from extreme Feb/March levels now they rest at Nov/Dec levels if they are in the midst of Head&Shoulder reversal patterns then we are ALL hosed then we are going down another 20% / Jim Willie