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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13632)	5/5/2000 8:08:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 15132

Re: ..the low volume means the we are "Not out of the woods yet"... FWIW, CNBC said that this week's volume was the lowest of the year so far for the NAZ & NYSE.

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13632)	5/5/2000 9:37:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Dick: Thanks for the bond information. It is funny that the discount to NAV on many closed funds I purchased earlier this year has not widened with the recent rise in rates. Damn. Are those sellers gone too??? Well, I found one gem today. The thing was selling at a 13% discount to NAV and was AAA rated for the most part and insured. A freakin' gift. Christmas in May, baby. LOL. Ah, Brinker was right. The Greenman is your best friend as a bond investor. Re: "Today's price action on the major averages was nice but the low volume means the we are "Not out of the woods yet". LOL. I suspect we will be hearing that line all year long. With respect to the Naz, what is "normal" volume? Forget about the liquidity and margin induced frenetic trading that went on from December through March. That was a speculative bubble. Gee, I remember that the NAZ bottomed in the Fall of 1998 at a then hefty 1.2B. Let's see, bad ECI and we rally on the NAZ. Questionable employment numbers and we rally. Worry, worry ... will the Greenman go with a 25 or a 50 basis point move? Who cares? Not Mr. Market although if the market believes the Greenman is going to choke the expansion with draconian hikes then all bets are off. I don't think he is prepared to do that at this point. No rubber chicken speakers have given any indication whatsoever that they have a plan to jack the rates to the sky and inflict some real economic pain to kill inflation. Oh, they are concerned and they will not go away but they will take a macro view and go on a month to month basis. And despite the hopes of the perma bulls, they are not going away. Fast forward to May 16th and a 50 basis point move. Here come the bulls. Joey B. will say that the Fed. is closer to an end now with such a large move and that there will be clear sailing for the second half of the year for sure now. Someone will say that they want ot get their hikes done before the summer so that June will be the last hike. (Yah, don't tell them about the August 1988 Fed. hike). And I still love the CNBC debate about the intra meeting hike. What a total joke!!!! I laugh at these guys in their serious debate of such an issue. Everyone has worked themselves up into such a frenzy that they have failed to notice that the market has discounted this hike whether it is 25 or 50 basis points. They were surprised at the rally today. LOL. Sorry, but all that matters is the GUIDANCE going forward now along with the on-going economic data. The Naz market is shell shocked at this point as I read the tape. Everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. Oh sure one can question the volume all they want but the market went up because the sellers have left to a large extent and all we have is nervous potential buyers (maybe not as many as before and maybe not as agressive) looking at one another saying: " Hey, be my guest. You go first." Anyway, as I have said before this is a trader's market. Let's see buy AMAT at or below $90 and sell at $100 and above. It is like a freakin' cash register. And finally today they get out in front of earnings to start pimping it. LOL.